The 2025 US Open men’s singles final is set for Sunday afternoon as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz renew their rivalry in yet another major final. This matchup has become the norm at the end of major tournaments as the top two players in the world continue to set themselves apart from their competition. Will Sinner win his second straight major or will Alcaraz draw even with his Italian adversary with two majors each this year? Continue reading to get my Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction for Sunday’s match from New York.
Our Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Pick
- Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win in 5 sets
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Sinner vs Alcaraz US Open Final Match Preview
Jannik Sinner enters this final as the top seed and he has been the most consistent force on tour in 2025. The Italian has won 80% of his matches this year and has been dominant on hard courts. Sinner required physio treatment for an abdominal issue in his semifinal match against Felix Auger-Aliassime. But he battled through to defeat Auger-Aliassime in four sets. His ability to absorb pressure and counterpunch remains his biggest weapon.
Carlos Alcaraz is ranked second in the world and has been flawless at this US Open. The Spaniard didn’t drop a set en route to the final. His commanding 6-4, 7-6, 6-2 win over 38-year-old Novak Djokovic in the semifinals was an impressive statement of intent going into the championship match. Alcaraz’s serve has been clicking and his variety has given opponents no chance to settle into matches. Alcaraz already has a US Open title from 2022 and is looking to add another in 2025. His athleticism and ability to transition from defense to offense make him dangerous in long rallies against Sinner.
This will be the third straight Grand Slam final between these two in 2025. Alcaraz took the French Open over Sinner and Sinner returned the favor in the Wimbledon final. Their rivalry has defined the 2025 season and both men are chasing history with every one of these encounters. The margins between these two have been razor-thin historically and this match could be another five-set battle.
Betting Insights
- This match is virtually a pick ’em as sportsbooks begin to release their opening lines after the semifinals.
- Sinner’s serve efficiency in New York has been high. He is averaging over 70% first-serve points won.
- Alcaraz has yet to drop a set this tournament. He has plenty of momentum and confidence entering the final.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
This final has all the makings of another instant classic. Sinner’s slight abdominal concern could be a factor in a grueling five-setter and Alcaraz looks fresher after expending less energy in his semifinal. Expect Sinner to rely on depth and precision from the baseline but for Alcaraz’s shot-making and net play to give him the edge late in the match. Alcaraz’s recent form and fitness make him the pick to squeak by Sinner in a dramatic five-set thriller.
Win Probability: Jannik Sinner 48%, Carlos Alcaraz 52%
