In the 2025 French Open men’s final, it will be Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner battling it out. Both men have been absolutely dominant in their run to the Roland Garros championship match. With the two combining to win each of the last five major titles, this match will determine whether Sinner keeps the majority of majors won since 2024 or if Alcaraz will even things at three apiece. Continue reading for our Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner prediction as we make our tennis betting picks before Sunday’s final.
Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview
So far at this tournament, Carlos Alcaraz has dropped four sets on his way to the final. The Spaniard hasn’t needed more than four sets to win a match yet in this tournament, including a semifinal against Lorenzo Musetti that ended in the fourth. Musetti had to retire in the fourth set of that match due to injury, as Alcaraz weathered an early storm from the Italian before wearing him down physically.
For Alcaraz to beat a second straight Italian to take the Roland Garros title, Alcaraz will need to get off to a better start than he did against Musetti. The world number two dropped the first set to Musetti, getting broken late in the first set. He then needed a second set tiebreak to get on the board for the match, and could have been down two sets had that tiebreak not gone his way.
Getting first serves in play will be a great barometer regarding how Alcaraz performs in this match. In dropping that opening set to Musetti, Alcaraz got just 41% of his first serves in. As that number rose during the match, so did the overall level of performance from Alcaraz, who will need to be accurate with his serving to avoid losing to the top seed.
Jannik Sinner Betting Preview
For the second straight year, Jannik Sinner won the first major of the year at the Australian Open. Last year, he failed to follow up on that with a French Open title, while Alcaraz was able to grab the title. This year, Sinner is one win away from righting that wrong by winning a second consecutive major title to start his 2025 campaign.
Sinner won his first six matches of this tournament all in straight sets, needing a tiebreak in only one of those 18 sets. That tiebreak came in the semifinal against Novak Djokovic, where Sinner won a tiebreak in the third set to slam the door in straight sets. Sinner made arguably the greatest player of all-time look pedestrian for much of that match, punishing Djokovic during long rallies in a reminder that Alcaraz and Sinner are the present and future of this sport.
As far as this match is concerned, Sinner will be looking to reverse his fortunes against Alcaraz on clay. The Italian is 1-3 all-time against Alcaraz on this surface, including a loss in last year’s Roland Garros semifinals and earlier this year in Rome. To get a win over Alcaraz on clay here and to claim a second major for the year, Sinner will need to avoid faltering in potential fourth and fifth sets like he did against Alcaraz on Court Philippe-Chatrier in last year’s semifinal.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Odds
Going into the Roland Garros championship match, betting odds have Alcaraz as the slight favorite favorite to win this match at -120. Sinner is at about even money to get the job done in the role of underdog, despite the fact that Sinner holds the higher seed going into the match. That is a product of the head-to-head record between these players on clay, where we have seen Alcaraz beat Sinner at this venue before.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Prediction
No matter what the outcome is, this match is going to be an absolute war. It would be a shock if we didn’t see four or five sets, as both players are so good at stealing momentum mid-match and going on prolonged runs of dominance against their opponent. As a result, betting for the match to go over 4.5 sets is an attractive option.
As far as the outcome of the match itself, it is hard not to like Sinner to win here. He has played better tennis throughout the fortnight and has spent fewer sets on court. Alcaraz didn’t look all that convincing against Musetti until injuries finally got the better of the Italian, and we think that the top-ranked Italian will avenge his countryman with a win and a second major this year.
