The first official Democratic Primary is set for Tuesday February 11, 2020 as 33 candidates vie for the 33 delegates up for grabs. After the disaster of the Iowa Caucus last week Pete Buttigieg narrowly leads Bernie Sanders by 13-12. Elizabeth Warren won eight delegates, Joe Biden won six and Amy Klobuchar won one in Iowa. Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton 15-9 during the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Primary.
Odds to win New Hampshire Primary – odds via William Hill
- Bernie Sanders -400
- Pete Buttigieg +200
- Joe Biden +2200
- Elizabeth Warren +2500
- Andrew Yang +10000
- Amy Klobuchar +10000
- Tulsi Gabbard +10000
- Tom Stayer +10000
As you can tell from the odds this is at most a four person race, but really a two person race. Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren will most likely steal a few delegates, but the winner will be between Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.
Naturally you would think Bernie Sanders, a Senator from Vermont, would wipe the floor with everyone in New Hampshire, but the Sanders camp expected a big win in Iowa as well which was not the case. Buttigieg won the delegates race, 13-12, and Sanders won the total vote’s race 45,826 – 43,195.
So what is on the line in New Hampshire? Every candidate that has won both Iowa and New Hampshire has gone on to win the party’s nomination. If Pete Buttigieg can pull off one of the biggest primary upsets, for the Democrats, in quite some time and win New Hampshire, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana could be on his way to challenging President Donald Trump in November.
Bernie will feel good about winning New Hampshire, and the Democratic Party nomination, as the winner of New Hampshire generally wins Nevada and California, which is a good sign for Bernie. Pete Buttigieg has a lot of momentum after Iowa and has risen up the polls in New Hampshire as well. Since his win in Iowa, Buttigieg is up eight points in New Hampshire, going head of Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden, and trailing Sanders by six points. Buttigieg is going to have a tough time winning the Party nomination, but a win in New Hampshire could change the minds of voters in states where he is not expected to do well.
Elizabeth Warren has the most to lose in New Hampshire as the Senator from Massachusetts did not do as well as hoped in Iowa. Warren is polling at just 11% in New Hampshire currently, which is fourth of all candidates, so the Senator needs a quick turnaround if she doesn’t want to be out of this race before Super Tuesday.
Joe Biden was the biggest loser of the Iowa Caucus as the former Vice President led the Iowa polls for much of the build-up, but ended up finishing in fourth place in the state. Biden needs to finish in second place, or third place at worst, to give him some steam heading into Nevada where he currently holds a slight lead over Bernie.
Tuesday night could go a long way towards producing the Democratic Party candidate and I like Bernie Sanders at -400 to win New Hampshire. I expect Elizabeth Warren to finish second, Biden to finish third and Buttigieg to finish in fourth.
