At this point, the group stage and knockout rounds of the CONCACAF Gold Cup are nothing more than a formality. The United States and Mexico will meet in the final of this tournament for the third time in the last four editions of the Gold Cup dating back to 2019. The winner will get a trophy and a major morale boost just a year before these nations co-host the 2026 World Cup with Canada. Continue reading to get my USA vs Mexico prediction as I pick which team I think will be the kings of CONCACAF.
My USA vs Mexico Prediction
- Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-154)
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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USA vs Mexico Match Preview
The United States was not playing well heading into the Gold Cup, losing four straight matches heading into the tournament. To make matters worse, some of their top players like Christian Pulisic chose not to take part in the tournament, while manager Mauricio Pochettino was interviewing for other jobs. But the players that did take part in this tournament have come together and made it to the final with five straight wins.
I’ve been impressed with the attacking of the United States even without a player like Pulisic who has proven he belongs in elite European leagues. Diego Luna has stepped up to fill the scoring void, coming off of a game where he scored twice in the semifinal win over Guatemala. But it will be the defending of the US that will be tested against their continental rivals.
Mexico has earned four wins and a draw en route to the Gold Cup final. They defeated Honduras in the semifinal round, controlling that game and limiting scoring chances from Honduras to set up another final against the US. In my opinion, there has not been a better defensive team than Mexico in this tournament, as they have allowed just two goals in the tournament going into the final. While the US will be the toughest test Mexico’s defense has seen in the Gold Cup, they have the talent to rise to that challenge.
USA vs Mexico Betting Odds
| Moneyline | USA (+150) | Mexico (+190) | Draw (+210) |
| To Win the Gold Cup | USA (-125) | Mexico (+100) | |
| Total | Over (+120) | Under (-154) | |
| BTTS? | Yes (-110) | No (-110) |
USA vs Mexico Model Projection
Score Projection: USA 0 – Mexico 1
Win Probability: USA 35%, Mexico 47%, Draw 18%
As much as I want to believe that the United States can cap off this Gold Cup with a win in the final over Mexico, I’m still not entirely convinced. The US was on the back foot for a good chunk of the second half against an inferior Guatemalan side. They also struggled to close out Costa Rica after taking an early lead in the quarterfinals.
Mexico is not as dangerous as they have been in the recent past. But without their top attackers, I see the USMNT struggling to breach the Mexican defense. The under is my best bet for this game, as it should be low-scoring and closely contested throughout.
