We all expected a USA vs Canada semifinal in the CONCACAF Gold Cup on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. But thanks to a huge upset from Guatemala in the quarterfinals, they will face the Americans in a match that takes place at Energizer Park in St. Louis instead. The US enters as a commanding favorite following a flawless run through the group stages and a penalty shootout win against Costa Rica in the quarterfinal. Here, we break down this match and give you our USA vs Guatemala prediction for Wednesday night.
Our USA vs Guatemala Pick
- Pick: USA -1.5 (-130)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Match: Use bet365 bonus code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets for USA vs Guatemala
USA vs Guatemala Match Preview
USA topped Group D with three dominant wins, scoring eight goals and conceding one. Their quarterfinal against Costa Rica ended 2–2 before a nervy shootout win, courtesy of three saves by goalkeeper Matt Freese and Damion Downs’ decisive penalty. Despite the scare, the USA’s shape under coach Mauricio Pochettino remains strong. They have dominated the ball in this tournament, created chances despite being without their top stars, and have controlled play effectively.
Guatemala finished second in Group C, advancing with six points, and secured a surprise quarterfinal win over Canada via penalties after a 1–1 draw. Their defense has been spectacular in this tournament, especially goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen. But that defense will be tested more than it has so far in this tournament against the Americans. I also must question how Guatemala responds to the pressure of being on this semifinal stage, even if they looked composed against Canada in the last round.
Betting Insights
- USA moneyline being around −360 suggests strong confidence from bookmakers.
- The US is favored by 1.5 goals, reflecting the expectation that the tournament hosts could win by more than one goal here.
- The Over/Under is set at 2.5 goals, with the over favored at -150, recognizing USA’s attacking form and Guatemala’s occasional defensive errors.
USA vs Guatemala Prediction
The US is likely to dominate possession and create continuous chances, stretching Guatemala’s back line. While Guatemala’s defense has held firm, they lack the firepower and tactical versatility to contain the US onslaught. I expect USA to score early, then manage the tempo and maintain control. Guatemala’s fight is admirable, but this represents a step too far in the level of competition in my view.
USA vs Guatemala Model Projection
- Score Projection: USA 2 – Guatemala 0
- Win Probability: USA 78%, Guatemala 9%, Draw 13%
Final Thoughts
The US should claim victory with a comfortable margin as far as I’m concerned. A 2–0 result aligns with statistical trends and my opinion from having watched both teams in this tournament. Bettors looking for value can lay the goal and a half with the Americans, as it would be a disastrous result for the US to fail to win this game in a rout.
