The real tests for the Untied States begin with the quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. On Sunday, the US faces Costa Rica, in the biggest test yet for the Americans under Mauricio Pochettino. But to win this match, the US will need more than home-field advantage, as they have to score on a stingy Costa Rican defense. Here, I break down this match and give you my USA vs Costa Rica prediction in the betting markets.
Our USA vs Costa Rica Pick
- Pick: United States Moneyline (-175)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Match: Bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets with bet365 promo code ATSBONUS!
USA vs Costa Rica Match Preview
The United States has played well in their first major tournament under manager Mauricio Pochettino. They won all three of their group stage games, beating Trinidad & Tobago, Saudi Arabia, and Haiti. The Americans scored eight goals in those three games, while conceding just once to Haiti. Despite missing stars like Christian Pulisic for this tournament, the US has played impressively and will look to continue to do so to advance to the semifinals of the Gold Cup.
Costa Rica finished second in Group A in the Gold Cup. They did not lose a match in group play, beating Suriname and Dominican Republic. But a draw against Mexico dropped them to second place on goal difference. Costa Rica’s defense has not been up to its usual standards in this tournament, conceding four times against lowly Suriname and Dominican Republic. But after a goalless draw against Mexico, the Costa Ricans could be trending in the right direction going into this match.
The United States has dominated the head-to-head series between these nations. They have won seven of their last 10 games against Costa Rica dating back to 2016. But with all of the changes to these squads between then and now, I urge bettors to focus on how both of these teams are playing lately when making their bets.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline odds: USA –175, Draw +310, Costa Rica +500
- Spread: USA –1 (+102), Costa Rica +1 (–124)
- Total goals: 2.5 (Over –115, Under -115)
USA vs Costa Rica Prediction
The US enter as clear favorites, with superior squad depth and an aggressive attack. Still, Costa Rica’s well‑organized defensive structure and Navas in net could frustrate the hosts. We expect a scrappy first half, but the US is likely to break through in the second half, capitalizing on extra chances. A bet on the U.S. at –175 feels solid, though a cautious wager on Over 2.5 goals (–115) could also yield value, as both teams have shown they can find the net.
USA vs Costa Rica Model Projection
- Score Projection: USA 2 – 1 Costa Rica
- Win Probability: USA 65%, Costa Rica 20%, Draw 15%
For bettors, the recommended plays are: United States Moneyline for a straight win, and Over 2.5 goals as a secondary bet in the event of a back‑and‑forth clash. Expect an intense match with late drama as both teams vie for a semifinal berth.
