You would hope to see a matchup between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund late in any major tournament. We will get exactly that matchup in the quarterfinals of the Club World Cup on Saturday, July 5, at MetLife Stadium in New York. Both of these teams know what to expect when facing one another in high-profile matches. Here, we will break down what you can expect in this chapter of their rivalry as we bring you our Real Madrid vs Dortmund prediction.
Our Real Madrid vs Dortmund Pick
- Pick: Real Madrid moneyline (-155)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Real Madrid vs Dortmund Match Preview
Real Madrid was not spectacular in the Round of 16, but they survived and advanced with a 1-0 win over Juventus. That was their sixth win in seven matches, as they dominated the flow of that match against another European powerhouse. The Madrid defense has given up just two goals in their four games at this Club World Cup. Meanwhile, my pick for the best player in the world right now should return to his spot in the Madrid starting XI, as Kylian Mbappe appears recovered from a bout of gastroenteritis.
Borussia Dortmund reached the quarterfinals after a 2–1 win over Monterrey. Dortmund got out to a two-goal lead in the first half of that match and nearly gave the lead away in the second 45 minutes. They have one of the hottest attacking players in this tournament in Serhou Guirassy, whose three goals are tied for second in the tournament. If he doesn’t score in this match, I’m not sure Dortmund can keep up with Madrid.
The suspension of defensive midfield anchor Jobe Bellingham due to yellow card accumulation deprives Dortmund of a key disruptor and diminishes the head-to-head intrigue with brother Jude, currently limping back from illness.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds favor Real Madrid at −155, while Dortmund stands at +400, with a Draw at +330.
- The Over 2.5 goals market is offered at −175, while the under is +135.
- Both Teams to Score appears appealing given Madrid’s early strikes in all four Club World Cup games, and Dortmund’s consistent goal production, led by Guirassy. The Yes option is -160, the no at +130.
- Mbappe is -120 to score in this match, and Vinicius Junior comes in at +175.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
We expect Real Madrid to control the rhythm in midfield and exploit Dortmund’s structural gaps during transitions. Mbappé’s return adds a new dimension to their attack, while Vinícius Jr and García offer wing and creation threats. Meanwhile, Dortmund lack the disruptive edge with Jobe absent and must rely on counters and dead-ball tactics via Guirassy.
This could translate into a two-goal margin win for Madrid and likely more than three goals in the match. The “Madrid & Over 2.5” double stands out as the most value-laden pick for me.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Model Projection
Score Projection: Real Madrid 3 – Borussia Dortmund 1
Win Probability: Real Madrid 65%, Borussia Dortmund 20%, Draw 15%
