As Panama and Honduras prepare to clash in the CONCACAF Gold Cup quarter‑final on Saturday, June 28, 2025, anticipation is building. Panama earned the maximum possible points from their three group matches. Honduras recovered from an opening defeat, bouncing back to clinch second place in Group B. This knockout fixture at Glendale’s State Farm Stadium promises drama and you can continue reading to get my Panama vs Honduras prediction.
Our Panama vs Honduras Prediction
- Pick: Panama to win (-154)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Match: Get $150 in bonus bets from a $5 bet with bet365 bonus code ATSBONUS
Panama vs Honduras Match Preview
Panama dominated Group C with three wins in three games, scoring 10 goals and conceding just 3. Ismael Díaz leads all Gold Cup goal scorers with five goals in three matches. Honduras, meanwhile, suffered a 6‑0 defeat to Canada in their Group B opener but rallied with wins over El Salvador and Curacao to secure progression. This match will require a higher level of performance from Honduras, though, as they can no longer rely on facing minnows like El Salvador and Curacao.
Panama is the favorite going into this Round of 16 match. The recent history between Panama and Honduras has been competitive, though. These nations have played three competitive matches against one another since 2021. Those matches have ended with a win for each side along with one draw. While Panama is playing better going into this game, I think it’s important to remember that there are no guarantees in fixtures between these countries.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline: At bet365, Panama is the favorite to win this match in regulation at -154, with Honduras at +475 and the draw option at +280.
- Spread: Honduras +1 can be had at around +120, Panama –1 is listed at +175, and the draw at that number is +260. The line suggests bettors believe that a draw over 90 minutes is a definite possibility.
- Totals: Over/Under 2.5 goals sits at –106 for the over and -118 for the under.
Panama vs Honduras Prediction
Expect Panama to take control early. Honduras may adopt a compact shape to try and survive into extra time, but their defensive frailties and Panama’s fluid attack make for expectations of multiple goals. Ismael Díaz remains the key man for Panama, especially in high‑press transitions. Honduras must find goals to stay in the tie, but Panama’s midfield should limit service. A final scoreline of 2‑1 or 3‑1 in Panama’s favor seems very likely.
Panama vs Honduras Model Projection
- Score Projection: Panama 2 – Honduras 1
- Win Probability: Panama 68%, Honduras 18%, Draw 14%
In my projections, Panama shows an average expected goals (xG) of 1.9 per match versus Honduras’ 1.1, while defensively Panama allows 0.8 against Honduras’ 1.5. The best value lies in a Panama moneyline, supported by both teams’ scoring tendencies and Panama’s attacking edge. Another angle is the Panama –1 goal spread, as a 3‑1, 2‑0, or 3‑0 win secures that bet.
