Brazilian teams will meet in the Round of 16 in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, as Palmeiras and Botafogo face off on Saturday, June 28. Both teams impressed in getting through their respective groups and we are guaranteed to see a Brazilian team through to the quarterfinals after this match concludes. Here, I break down this Round of 16 opener and make my Palmeiras vs Botafogo prediction for Saturday afternoon.
Our Palmeiras vs Botafogo Prediction
- Pick: Under 2.5 goals
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Match: Use bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets!
Palmeiras vs Botafogo Match Preview
Both of these clubs did a good job of navigating groups that were not easy to open this tournament. Palmeiras finished atop Group A, securing draws against Porto and Inter Miami and defeating Al Ahly to snag five total points. Botafogo, meanwhile, finished second in Group B behind PSG on goal difference despite beating the European champions in the group stage. Had Botafogo secured a point in their final group stage game against Atletico Madrid, they’d have finished ahead of PSG in the group stage, but the Brazilian side will look to rebound from that third matchday defeat here.
Both of these clubs got through their groups on the strength of their defending. They each allowed just two goals each during group stage competition, an impressive feat given the quality of attacking they faced. As a result, we could be in for a low-scoring match to start the knockout stages, though familiarity with one another through domestic competition could open things up a bit.
Betting Insights
- Head-to-head: Botafogo have not lost in their last five meetings with Palmeiras, earning three wins and two draws.
- Goals trends: Both teams have seen two goals per game or less in their group stage matches at this tournament.
- Popular markets:
- Under 2.5 goals is heavily favored at -190, while the over is available around +150.
- Palmeiras to win on the moneyline is available at +135, Botafogo enters at +235, while the draw over 90 minutes is +200.
- Palmeiras is the favorite to advance at -145, while bettors can back Botafogo at +115.
Palmeiras vs Botafogo Prediction
This match is will be a tight, low-scoring duel as far as I’m concerned. The recent group play performance from both teams suggests limited firepower up front. Both sides bring tournament momentum, but Botafogo could have the upper hand thanks to their head-to-head record with Palmeiras recently, combined with Igor Jesus’s attacking threat.
Given the strong defenses on both sides, head-to-head history, and the cautious nature of knockout play, the under 2.5 goals market offers real value despite the vig. A 90-minute draw seems likely, perhaps a 1-1 stalemate or narrow 1-0 decision. If we had to take a team to advance, Botafogo would be that team at plus money.
Palmeiras vs Botafogo Model Projection
- Score Projection: Palmeiras 1 – Botafogo 1 (Botafogo wins on PKs)
- Win Probability: Palmeiras 35%, Botafogo 30%, Draw 35%
