The quarterfinal between Mexico and Saudi Arabia in the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup will only feature one CONCACAF team. But it includes two teams that did enough to earn their spot in the last eight. Mexico is the favorite to get back to the semifinals of this tournament that they have dominated, while Saudi Arabia is looking to pull off an upset in Arizona. Continue reading to get my Mexico vs Saudi Arabia prediction before Saturday’s kickoff.
Our Mexico vs Saudi Arabia Prediction
- Pick: Mexico -1 (+130)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Mexico vs Saudi Arabia Match Preview
Mexico earned seven points to finish atop Group A. They got wins over Dominican Republic and Suriname, but stumbled to a controversial 0-0 draw with Costa Rica to close out group play. While their defense recorded consecutive clean sheets to close out group play, allowing two goals to DR raised questions about Mexico’s defending prior to the knockout rounds.
Saudi Arabia is not a part of CONCACAF, but they proved they belonged in the knockout rounds of the Gold Cup. They finished second in Group D with four points, defeating Haiti, getting a draw against Trinidad & Tobago, and losing respectably to the US. Saudi Arabia has been a World Cup caliber team in recent cycles, but they still have an uphill climb here if they want to upset Mexico and reach the semifinals.
If Saudi Arabia wants any shot at advancing to the semifinals, they will need to find a way to prevent Cesar Montes from scoring. Montes scored three goals in the group phase of the tournament, putting him in a tie for second in Gold Cup goals. If Saudi Arabia can contain him, they could put a scare into Mexico on Saturday night.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline odds: Mexico -223, Saudi Arabia +650, Draw +320
- Spread: Mexico –1 (+130), Saudi Arabia +1 (+162), Draw (+240)
- Totals: Over 2.5 (+110), Under 2.5 (-143)
- BTTS: Yes +125, No -175
Mexico vs Saudi Arabia Prediction
I expect Mexico to control this game throughout, forcing Saudi Arabia into a defensive shell. Saudi Arabia will try to do their attacking through counters, but Mexico should be able to shut that plan of attack down. As long as Mexico doesn’t make any catastrophic errors, I see Saudi Arabia having a hard time scoring and Mexico advancing rather easily to the semifinals.
Mexico vs Saudi Arabia Model Projection
- Score Projection: Mexico 2 – Saudi Arabia 0
- Win Probability: Mexico 65%, Saudi Arabia 15%, Draw 20%
- Main pick: Mexico -1
- Alternative: Mexico moneyline, though I’d prefer not to lay the juice on that
- Under 2.5 goals: Mexico should be able to shut down the Saudi attack.
- BTTS No: A clean sheet for Mexico is the most likely outcome in this game.
In sum, Mexico has the quality, experience, and form to progress, while Saudi Arabia poses a limited threat. For bettors, laying the goal with Mexico offers a reasonable upside, as they should prove to their guests from another federation why they are the kings of CONCACAF.
