With the CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinals set for Wednesday, July 2, 2025, Mexico and Honduras face off at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Mexico is unbeaten in this tournament, cruising past Saudi Arabia 2–0 in their quarterfinal. Honduras has taken a more exciting path, regrouping from a 6–0 group-stage loss to Canada and advancing past Panama in a penalty shootout. Here, I break down both sides and make my Mexico vs Honduras prediction for this match.
Our Mexico vs Honduras Pick
- Pick: Mexico -1.5 (-110)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Mexico vs Honduras Match Preview
Form & Momentum
- Mexico: Unbeaten to date (3‑1‑0), with efficient attacking displays (scoring 3, 2, 0, and 2 goals) and a stingy defence that has recorded three clean sheets in their last three outings.
- Honduras: After their harsh 6‑0 loss, they’ve forged ahead to secure a quarterfinal win via penalties. Goals have been plentiful of late, but defensive inconsistency remains a concern.
Head‑to‑Head & Tournament Context
- Mexico has dominated the all-time series between these teams, but they have split their last four meetings 2-2.
- Honduras’ recent tournament form includes scoring in four of their last five matches, suggesting they won’t be easily shut out.
Squad Composition
- Mexico benefits from a squad recharge thanks to the absence of Club América in the Club World Cup, making key players available.
- Honduras relies on players like Alexy Vega, who has contributed on the international stage this year.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline: Mexico is at -320, Honduras is at +950, and the draw is at +425.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: Both sides of this market are at -110, but recent form suggests Over is likely the safer play.
- First‑half outcome: Mexico have led at half in two of their last three matches vs Honduras.
- Team Totals & Props: Mexico Over 2.5 goals offers value, especially if you think Mexico covers the 1.5-goal handicap.
- BTTS: No is favored at -175, while Yes is +145, implying the expectation of a shutout win for Mexico.
Mexico vs Honduras Prediction
Mexico enters the match as favorites thanks to their history of dominating the rest of CONCACAF and I think that designation is justified. Even with Honduras showing a ton of toughness in this tournament, I expect Mexico to dominate early and give themselves some breathing room. Mexico should prevail, and I like them to cover the 1.5-goal spread as the favorite.
Mexico vs Honduras Model Projection
Score Projection: Mexico 3 – Honduras 1
Win Probability: Mexico 75%, Honduras 15%, Draw 10%
Reasoning: Our model factors in form, head‑to‑head history, and current tournament performance. Mexico’s defense has been strong recently, but Honduras’ tendency to concede early and fight back suggests a 3‑1 outcome could be the final result.
