Canada and Guatemala meet on Sunday, June 29, 2025, in a CONCACAF Gold Cup quarterfinal showdown that pits North American might against Central American grit. Continue reading to get my analysis for this match and my Canada vs Guatemala prediction.
Our Canada vs Guatemala Pick
- Pick: Canada to win with a clean sheet (-120)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Canada vs Guatemala Match Preview
Canada won Group B with seven points. They got a 6-0 win over Honduras and had solid performances against Curaçao (1-1) and El Salvador (2-0). Canada dominated possession against El Salvador and found their rhythm in the second half of that match despite a penalty miss from Jonathan David. Canada is playing well of late, which bodes well for them just a year before co-hosting the 2026 World Cup alongside Mexico and the United States.
Guatemala advanced as runners-up in Group C with six points. They got a 3-2 win over Guadeloupe, a 1-0 win over Jamaica, and suffered a 1-0 loss to Panama. That 3-2 thriller was marked by strong defensive resolve, though their keeper Nicholas Hagen’s injury in training means Kenderson Navarro (23) takes over between the sticks.
Betting Odds
| Moneyline | Canada -295 | Guatemala +850 | Draw +400 |
| Spread | Canada -1.5 (-105) | Guatemala +1.5 (-130) | |
| Total | Over 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 (+100) | |
| BTTS | Yes +115 | No -145 |
Canada vs Guatemala Prediction
Canada’s dominance over El Salvador suggests they’ve regained form and midfield control. With players like David, Buchanan, and Larin in fine shape, Canada offers a cohesive unit in both pressing and transition. Meanwhile, Guatemala’s injury to Hagen is a major concern. Their backup keeper Navarro brings limited experience under high-pressure conditions.
Historically, Canada boasts four wins in the last six meetings against Guatemala, with just one loss and a single draw. Guatemala defensively has kept only one clean sheet against elite sides, but Canada’s consistent attack is likely to break through.
Canada’s midfield will likely dominate possession. Guatemala may attempt to sit deep and threaten through counter‑attacks via Rubin and Escobar, but Canada’s depth and pace, especially on the wings, will tip the balance.
Canada vs Guatemala Model Projection
- Score Projection: Canada 2 – Guatemala 0
- Win Probability: Canada 68%, Guatemala 19%
- Draw Probability: 13% (if needed)
Canada’s well-rounded squad, superior momentum, and Guatemala’s goalkeeper uncertainty favor a confident Canadian victory without conceding. For bettors, backing Canada on the moneyline and betting on a Canada clean sheet offers value. A 2-0 win seems like the most probable outcome.
