A German side and a Mexican side will meet in the final game of the Round of 16 in this year’s Club World Cup. Borussia Dortmund and Monterrey will play in Atlanta, with the winner completing the quarterfinal field on Tuesday. Dortmund is a slight favorite to advance, but I don’t recommend counting out teams from outside of Europe based on what we’ve seen in this tournament so far. Here, I give you my analysis for this match, including my Borussia Dortmund vs Monterrey prediction.
Our Borussia Dortmund vs Monterrey Pick
- Pick: Borussia Dortmund Moneyline (-130)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Match: Use bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets win or lose on Dortmund vs Monterrey
Borussia Dortmund vs Monterrey Preview
Borussia Dortmund finished in first place in Group F with seven points. They beat Ulsan HD and Mamelodi Sundowns after a draw against Brazilian side Fluminense to open their tournament. I struggle to get a read on Dortmund right now, as they held Fluminense and Ulsan HD scoreless, but they gave up three goals to the Sundowns. Which version of the Dortmund defense shows up in this game will have a major impact on whether or not the German side can get to the quarterfinals.
I’ve been impressed with Monterrey so far in this Club World Cup. Going into this tournament, I’d have assumed it was between them and River Plate to take second place in Group E. Monterrey avoided losing in their three group games to take that second position. Now the Mexican club has a chance to prove that it can defeat an elite European opponent in their first ever meeting with Dortmund.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline odds place Dortmund as -130 favorites, while Monterrey is +340 to win outright, and a draw priced at +270.
- Spread markets have Dortmund –0.5 at -145, suggesting bookmakers anticipate a Dortmund win in 90 minutes.
- Over 2.5 goals is slightly favored at -130, while the under is at even money.
Borussia Dortmund vs Monterrey Prediction
My number one question for Monterrey going into this match is whether they can handle Dortmund’s pace in transition. I expect Dortmund to control possession early, building pressure on Monterrey’s back line and not letting up. Reyna’s creativity and Adeyemi’s speed may unlock early chances. Monterrey may register a goal, perhaps from a set-piece or counter‑attack, but Dortmund’s superior squad quality should secure a 2‑1 or 3‑1 victory.
Borussia Dortmund vs Monterrey Model Projection
Score Projection: Borussia Dortmund 2 – Monterrey 1
Win Probability: Borussia Dortmund 68%, Monterrey 17%, Draw 15%
I expect Dortmund to win here, but I recommend a smaller bet size for this match. If you are looking for some extra value, I don’t dislike the idea of parlaying over 2.5 goals with a Dortmund win, or a Dortmund clean sheet at slightly longer odds.
