We are just days away from the start of the 2022/2023 English Premier League season and we are looking at the best Premier League futures for the upcoming campaign all week to get prepped. The next futures market of focus is the Premier League relegation futures (or to be relegated) market. A futures bet with the opportunity to literally bet on the failure and downfall of a club in what is a pessimist dream.
The relegation market for any season is usually composed of the same typecasts of clubs.
At the top of the board with the shortest odds are the newly arrived clubs looking to avoid immediate relegation from the world’s top domestic soccer league. This year those clubs are AFC Bournemouth (-225), Nottingham Forest (+150) and Fulham (2.50) who all earned promotion from the Championship to the Prem and sit atop of the board as the favorites to head right back down to the second tier of English football at season end.
In the second tier are the clubs that barely staved off relegation last season and failed to do enough in the summer to convince the oddsmakers that they won’t be in the relegation scrap for another season.
This year’s list of clubs who just barely escaped a season in the Championship that the oddsmakers feel are in trouble of experiencing relegation for real this season include Brentford (+275), Everton (+333) and Southampton (+375) along with the best value pick in the relegation market in Leeds United at +200 odds.
Why Leeds United Will Face the Drop
Last season was an abject failure for Leeds in their return to the top flight after a lengthy period of languish in the lower levels of English football. Beloved and respected manager Marcelo Bielsa finally reached the end of the road at Elland Road and was sacked after a dismal start to the campaign put Leeds in real danger of relegation.
In came American manager Jesse Marsch after his own sacking at RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga and the results weren’t any better with a new managerial leader. In fact, Leeds required a final day escape at Brentford to avoid relegation and were mere minutes away from the decision to sack Bielsa to install Marsch ending in disaster.
Now, Leeds will be faced with putting together an improved campaign to avoid the drop despite a clear trend of playing relegation quality football over the past 12 months. Neither Bielsa or Marsch seemed to possess an ability to prevent Leeds from being a club that doesn’t score enough goals and concedes far too many to pick up points on a consistent basis in the Premier League. That spells future problems for Leeds this season if the quality of ideas and play on the pitch doesn’t improve from Matchday 1.
Star Departures A Problem
Beyond the concerns that Jesse Marsch might not be the man for the job at Leeds is the matter of the club losing its two best players this summer in the transfer market. Raphina is headed to Barcelona and was the club’s only world class attacker on a team that hardly created many chances.
In the midfield, England international Kalvin Phillips also bolted to greener pastures and took his sturdy box to box presence to Manchester City in the name of winning trophies and league titles. That leaves a Leeds team that underperformed last season and was nearly relegated despite having two legitimate world class players, to one that will look to avoid the drop with a far less talented roster.
Letting Raphina and Phillips go will ultimately cause Leeds their downfall in my mind as it is hard to see a way where the club has a better season after jettisoning two players of that caliber without bringing in significant reinforcements.
Relying on Patrick Bamford and American youngster Brendan Aaronson might work in the Championship. But Leeds are in the Premier League and require far more talent to feel good about their safety and status in the top flight and simply do not have that at the moment.
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Other Relegation Wagers To Consider
For those looking for clubs other than Leeds to back in Premier League relegation futures this season, Brentford and Nottingham Forest both stick out as the other two interesting candidates.
Brentford played some exciting footy at times in their Premier League debut last season. However, they lost Christian Eriksen’s presence and look to be the most likely club to experience ‘Second Season Syndrome’ after securing safety last year.
As for Nottingham Forest, it is exciting to see the former back to back European Cup winners back in the top flight for nostalgia purposes. Their stay might not last very long unfortunately as despite having big pockets for the Championship to earn their promotion, it is an entirely different ballgame to be able to invest correctly to solidify Premier League status. Much like Fulham has experienced in the last decade, it may take a yo-yo or two back down to the Championship for Forest to get the structure and resources in place to remain in the top division following promotion.
