Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick – 3/17/2025

The Philadelphia Flyers are set to face the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, March 17, 2025, at 7:00 PM at Amalie Arena. This matchup presents an intriguing scenario for bettors, as the Flyers have secured victories in both previous encounters this season, each decided by shootouts. However, the Lightning, boasting a strong home record, are eager to reverse this trend.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Game Preview

The Flyers enter this game with a 28-32-8 record, placing them at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division. Their recent form is concerning, having lost six of their last seven games, including a 5-0 defeat to the Carolina Hurricanes. Goaltending has been a significant issue, with the team ranking last in the league in save percentage at .875. Samuel Ersson, expected to start in goal, holds a 19-13-4 record with a 3.02 goals-against average and an .886 save percentage this season.

Offensively, the Flyers average 2.75 goals per game, ranking 22nd in the league. Their power play has struggled, converting only 14.7% of opportunities, the third-worst in the NHL. Key contributors include Travis Konecny, leading the team with 65 points (22 goals, 43 assists), and Matvei Michkov, who has 47 points (20 goals, 27 assists).

On the other hand, the Lightning hold a 38-23-5 record, positioning them third in the Atlantic Division. They recently snapped a three-game losing streak with a commanding 6-2 victory over the Boston Bruins. Tampa Bay's offense is potent, averaging 3.53 goals per game, ranking third in the league. However, they've experienced a slight dip in scoring, averaging 2.5 goals over their last four games.

Defensively, the Lightning are solid, allowing 2.68 goals per game, placing them seventh in the NHL. Andrei Vasilevskiy, expected to start in goal, has a 31-18-3 record with a 2.28 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage this season. Offensively, Nikita Kucherov leads with 93 points (28 goals, 65 assists), while Brandon Hagel has contributed 73 points (31 goals, 42 assists).

Betting Insights

• Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning -265, Philadelphia Flyers +215
• Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+102), Flyers +1.5 (-122)
• Over/Under: 5.5 goals

Key trends to consider:

• The Lightning have won eight of their last nine night games at Amalie Arena.
• The Flyers have lost six of their last seven games.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in five of their last six night games at Amalie Arena.
• The Flyers have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games as underdogs.

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

Considering the current form and statistical analysis, the Tampa Bay Lightning are favored to win this game. Their strong home performance and superior offensive capabilities provide a significant advantage. While the Flyers have managed to secure shootout victories in previous matchups this season, their recent struggles, particularly in goaltending, make it challenging to anticipate a repeat performance.

For bettors, the Lightning covering the puck line at -1.5 (+102) appears to be a favorable option, given their recent trends and the Flyers' difficulties in covering as underdogs. Additionally, considering the Flyers' offensive struggles and the Lightning's solid defense, the total goals are likely to stay under 5.5.

In conclusion, the Tampa Bay Lightning are expected to secure a decisive victory over the Philadelphia Flyers in this matchup.