Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers Game 3 Pick – 5/25/2025

Rogers Place sets the stage on Sunday, May 25, as the Western Conference Final moves to Alberta with the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers level at one win each. Edmonton returned from Texas with momentum after a 3-0 shutout that showcased their defense and a penalty-kill that finally stood tall against Dallas’ lethal power-play. The stakes climb higher now: the club that owns Game 3 when a best-of-seven is tied has gone on to win the series nearly two-thirds of the time in NHL history. Expect energy, noise, and plenty of shot attempts in a pivotal matinee.

Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers Game 3 Preview

Game 1 belonged to Dallas, a third-period surge fuelled by three power-play strikes from Mikko Rantanen’s unit turning a 3-1 deficit into a 6-3 triumph. Two nights later the Oilers flipped the script behind Skinner’s shutout, plus goals from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brett Kulak and Connor Brown. As the venue shifts north of the border, Edmonton has home-ice advantage and last change, allowing Kris Knoblauch to shield Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl from the Stars’ top-pair defenders.

Key performance drivers so far:

• Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Mikko Rantanen share the postseason scoring lead at 20 points each. McDavid has averaged 5.2 shots per home playoff game, a spike from his road rate.
• Dallas converts 33.3% of its power-play opportunities but just 17.7 on foreign ice. Edmonton’s penalty kill ranks 64.1% overall yet improves to 83.3% at Rogers Place.

Betting Insights

Primary numbers at leading North American shops as of Sunday morning:

• Moneyline: Edmonton Oilers −150, Dallas Stars +130
• Puck line: Oilers −1.5 pays +165, Stars +1.5 priced −200
• Total goals: 6.5, over +105, under −125

Trends and angles of note:

1. The Oilers are 5-1 in their past six home playoff dates, averaging 4.2 goals for while surrendering 1.8.
2. McDavid has cleared 3.5 shots in every home game this spring, producing an average of 5.2 on target.
3. The Stars are 2-4 on the road this postseason and have scored two or fewer goals in three straight away fixtures.
4. Dallas’s power-play percentage drops by nearly 16 points on the road, clashing with an Edmonton penalty kill that improves by 19 points at home.

Bettors weighing the total must consider that three of Edmonton’s past four outings have finished under 6.5, while Dallas has produced a combined three goals in its previous two contests. Yet both clubs feature elite offensive talent; a special-teams spike could quickly tilt the scoreline upward.

Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers Game 3 Prediction

Expect Edmonton to lean on pace and star-power, pressing early to feed off a crowd eager for a Conference Final breakthrough. With last change, Knoblauch can steer McDavid away from Heiskanen, opening lanes for Edmonton’s top unit that already generated seven points in two Texas games. Skinner’s confidence is soaring, and the Oilers’ improved defensive details have limited high-danger attempts to an average of nine per sixty minutes since the Vegas series ended.

Oettinger gives the Stars a chance, but Edmonton’s depth scoring has begun to supplement its superstars, and the Oilers’ home ice penalty kill has already demonstrated it can stand up to Dallas’s man-advantage machine.

The pick: Edmonton Oilers moneyline −150 and under 6.5 goals −125. Skinner’s current form, McDavid’s elevated shot volume in Edmonton, and a Stars attack potentially missing its top centre combine to make the Oilers the preferred side while pointing to a lower-scoring contest.

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