The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans will meet at NRG Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Both of these AFC South teams head into Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season sitting at 0–3. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward will look to lead the Titans to their first win of his career. They will look to do so against a Texans team led by one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league in CJ Stroud. Here, I break down this AFC South matchup and make my Titans vs Texans prediction for Sunday.
Our Titans vs Texans Pick
- Pick: Texans –6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 1:00 pm ET
- Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: CBS
Titans vs Texans Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Texans −6.5 | Texans −360, Titans +280 | 39.5 |
Key Storylines
Houston must fix offensive issues. In Week 3, the Texans lost 17–10 to the Jaguars despite tying the game late via a 50-yard touchdown pass. Mistakes in the red zone, a late interception, and a fumble doomed them. Their third-down conversion rate has been poor, and penalties have derailed promising drives. The Texans are averaging 12.6 points per game and need to do more in this spot.
Tennessee still learning under Cam Ward. The rookie QB has struggled early in his pro career. In the Week 3 loss to Indianapolis, Ward was sacked four times and he hasn’t had sustained success even when he has had time to throw. Tennessee’s offense will likely improve as this season goes along and Ward gains more experience. But things look bleak early for the Titans.
Pressure mounting for both teams. Neither club has much room for error now. Houston was projected by many oddsmakers as a division favorite but they are already three games back of the Colts in the standings. Tennessee is in full rebuild mode but that doesn’t make being 0-3 feel any better for the players or fans.
Quarterback Play
C.J. Stroud is under scrutiny. He has thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions in three games. He has not yet delivered in the red zone or closed games effectively for Houston. If he can avoid turnovers and get some chunk plays down the field, Houston has a path to cover the spread and win.
Cam Ward’s 23-of-38 passing for 219 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against Indy wasn’t enough in Week 3. He’s still being chased all game due to a lack of solid pass protection. If Ward is pressured heavily (and he likely will be), mistakes could be the result. Tennessee’s ability to run the ball and protect Ward will be vital to staying in this one.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston is 0-3 against the spread this season.
- Tennessee is 1-2 against the spread on the year.
- Two of the Titans’ first three games have gone over their totals.
- All three Texans games this season have gone under their totals.
Titans vs Texans Model Projection
Score Projection: Houston Texans 24 – Tennessee Titans 13
Win Probability: Texans 70%, Titans 30%
Final Thoughts
This is a game that the Texans have to win convincingly to breathe some life back into their season. I expect them to do just that. Houston should be able to shut down Cam Ward and the Tennessee offense and CJ Stroud should finally bounce back with a strong game. I’ll lay the points with the Texans at home in Week 4.
