Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Prediction – 9/21/2025
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots will meet in Week 3 of the NFL season on Sunday. Both teams are 1-1 to begin the season and this game will be huge for both teams as they look to avoid falling down the AFC hierarchy. Here, I break down this AFC matchup from Foxborough and give you my Steelers vs Patriots prediction for this matchup.
Our Steelers vs Patriots Pick
- Pick: Patriots Moneyline
- Confidence: 2/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- The Steelers regressed in Week 2. After beating the Jets to open the season, they lost to the Seattle Seahawks 31-17 at home. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled early in the year and will try to improve on that side of the ball here.
- The Patriots bounced back from a Week 1 loss by defeating the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. The Patriots scored 33 points against Miami and will try to build on that offensively against the Steelers here.
- New England’s pass defense is dinged up. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez has been out with a hamstring and his Week 3 status remains uncertain. If the Pats are light at corner, DK Metcalf’s size and speed could give the Steelers an advantage.
Quarterback Play
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 447 yards through his first two games as a Steeler. He has five touchdown passes and two interceptions. Rodgers struggled against Seattle in Week 2 with one touchdown and two interceptions. A lack of consistency from Rodgers isn’t overly surprising but it is still something that could derail Pittsburgh as the season goes on.
Drake Maye had a solid Week 2. He completed 19 of his 23 pass attempts with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Maye is at his best when he doesn’t have to put the ball in the air 46 times like he did in Week 1. A balance between run and pass is key to his success and the success of the Patriots.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Patriots have won three straight times over the Steelers in previous seasons.
- The Patriots are 1-1 against the spread this season.
- Pittsburgh is 0-2 against the spread to start the year.
- Both of Pittsburgh’s games have gone over their totals.
- New England is 1-1 in the total market to begin their season.
Steelers vs Patriots Model Projection
Score Projection: Steelers 24 – Patriots 27
Win Probability: Steelers 46% – Patriots 54%
Final Thoughts
The defense for the Steelers has been alarmingly bad to start the season against Justin Fields and Sam Darnold. We should see the Steelers continue to struggle on that side of the ball this week, even against another subpar quarterback in Drake Maye. I’ll go with the Patriots to win at home in what should be another high-scoring Steelers game.
