New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction – 9/14/2025
The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins will do battle in a game between two AFC East foes on Sunday. Both teams lost their season openers and will look to get their first win of the season in Week 2. Both teams will try to avoid an 0-2 start knowing they could fall behind the Buffalo Bills in their division early in the year. Before these division rivals take the field, keep reading for my Patriots vs Dolphins prediction.
Our Patriots vs Dolphins Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- The Dolphins were demolished by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. Tua Tagovailoa struggled with ball security and the Miami offense scored just eight points. The Dolphins will hope for more success on offense in Week 2.
- Mike Vrabel’s first game as Patriots head coach was a disaster. The Patriots lost 20-13 to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Pats gave up 362 yards through the air to Geno Smith. New England’s pass defense has to be better or they could be in for a long day against Miami’s passing attack.
- New England star corner Christian Gonzalez missed Week 1 with a hamstring issue. New England could really use him in their secondary to put up more resistance on defense in this contest.
- New England has struggled in South Florida in recent seasons. The heat and a gap in offensive talent between these teams has made Miami a slight favorite despite their worrisome start to the year.
Quarterback Play
Tua Tagovailoa’s season started about as poorly as it could have started for the Dolphins. Tagovailoa had just 114 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in Miami’s 33-8 loss to Indianapolis. Miami will be expected to perform better through the air this week, but that is far from a guarantee after what we saw from Tua in Indy.
Drake Maye completed just under two-thirds of his passes in Week 1. He had 287 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Maye was not as bad as Tagovailoa in Week 1. But he wasn’t great either and has plenty of room to grow as this season wears on.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both teams failed to cover the spread in their first games of the season.
- Both teams had their first games of the season stay under their respective totals.
- Miami went 5-3 at home last season and the Patriots were 2-7 on the road.
Patriots vs Dolphins Model Projection
Score Projection: Patriots 20 – Dolphins 24
Win Probability: Patriots 43% – Dolphins 57%
Final Thoughts
If I had to predict which of these offenses is going to improve after struggling in Week 1, it would be the Miami Dolphins. Tagovailoa clearly has his flaws, but I think he will be more effective at home against a Patriots defense whose best player might miss this contest. I will take the Dolphins as a slight home favorite to avoid a disastrous 0-2 start.
