New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, Pick, & Odds – 10/20/2024

Patriots vs Jaguars Betting Odds

For the second straight week, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be participating in a London game in Week 7. This time, they will take on the New England Patriots, with the Jags favored by 4.5 points and the total for the game listed at 42.5 points.

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The road Patriots won by double digits, defeating the Jaguars 50-10 in Week 17 of 2021. They say, good teams win, but great teams cover. The Patriots not only won, but covered the -17.5 spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 41.5 and which the Over hit.

Jacksonville's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 414 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #3-most yards per game (296) against the Jaguars. Opposing running backs have given the Jaguars pass defense the most trouble, posting 57 yards per game against them (#1-worst in football). Jacksonville's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #32 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Jacksonville's defensive tackles are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #2-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Jaguars check in at #15 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 226 yards per game (#18 in football). Their run game has ranked #4 with 5.44 yards per attempt on the ground.

New England's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #28 in the league with a mere 268 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #3-worst in football with 169 yards per game. It's tough to succeed when you don't have much time to throw, as has been the case for New England. Their offensive line has ranked just #27 in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Patriots have ranked #24 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 240 yards per game through the air against them (#9 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 with 4.8 yards per carry. New England has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 66.2% completion rate (#6-lowest). New England has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 68.9% completion rate (#7-highest).

Maye, Patriots Head to London On Long Losing Streak

In their first game of the season, the New England Patriots won outright as an underdog against the Cincinnati Bengals. Since then, they have not won a game, dropping five straight contests, including their most recent outing against the Houston Texans. Drake Maye got the start in the 41-21 loss to Houston and he was predictably a mixed bag, throwing three touchdown passes and two interceptions in the loss. But the Pats have not scored more than 21 points in a game so far this season and they will likely need to change that to get back into the win column in Week 7.

Jaguars Hope Second Time Is the Charm In London

Going into Patriots vs Jaguars on Sunday morning here in the states, the Jacksonville Jaguars are also 1-5 on the year. As a bizarre form of punishment to the people of London, the Jaguars are playing in London for the second week in a row this week, after they lost to the Chicago Bears there in Week 6. The Jags gave up four passing touchdowns to the number-one overall pick from the most recent draft class, Caleb Williams. Here, they will try and avoid another embarrassing outing against a rookie quarterback as they hope to fare better defensively against Maye and the Pats.

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

Final Score: New England Patriots 17.38 vs Jacksonville Jaguars 24.19

An underrated component of this Patriots vs Jaguars matchup is the fact that the Jaguars are staying in London for a full week, while the Patriots have to travel there this week. That travel assignment is no easy task and we should see the Jags better acclimated to being overseas in this game than New England. That, combined with the struggles of the Patriots offense has us laying the points with the Jags in this one from Wembley.

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