Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Best Bet – 9/29/2024

Vikings vs Packers Betting Odds

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

Sunday the Minnesota Vikings (3-0) will battle the Green Bay Packers (2-1). Oddsmakers peg the Packers as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 56%, leaving the Vikings with a 44% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Packers -2.5 with a Game Total of 43.5.

Green Bay's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #9 in the NFL at 337 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Packers 242 yards per game through the air ranks #9-best in football this year. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #10 in the league in pass protection. This presents a decided advantage for Green Bay given that the Vikings haven't had much success in stopping the pass this year, giving up 7.07 yards per target (#28-worst in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Packers check in at #21 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 222 yards per game against Green Bay this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.57 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their defensive ends, who rank #9 in the league when it comes to run-stopping. Green Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 8.73 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).

Minnesota's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #7 in the league with 344 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their rushing attack, which is #1-best in football with 5.3 yards per carry. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Minnesota has averaged 7.36 yards per target, which ranks them #7 in football. This represents a particular advantage for Minnesota given that the Packers have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 4.57 yards per carry (#9-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Vikings have ranked #12 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 227 yards per game through the air against them (#17 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #29 with 3.92 yards per carry. Minnesota has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 6.65 yards per target (#4-best). Minnesota has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 87.9% completion rate (#4-highest).

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Vikings 21.57 vs Green Bay Packers 20.93

NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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