The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts will open their 2025 regular season against each other on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. The quarterback situations for both teams will be the big stories in this game for different reasons. Before these AFC squads face off in Indianapolis, continue reading to get my breakdown of this contest and my Dolphins vs Colts prediction.
Our Dolphins vs Colts Pick
- Pick: Indianapolis Colts -1.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: CBS and Paramount+
Dolphins vs Colts Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Colts -1.5 | Colts -112 / Dolphins -108 | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Colts have elected to go with Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback instead of Anthony Richardson. The thought process is that Jones has a higher floor than Richardson. But his ceiling is also lower and how that impacts the Colts’ offense will go a long way in determining this game’s outcome.
- Tyreek Hill is listed as questionable entering the opener due to an oblique injury. The Dolphins will expect him to be active given that he is practicing. How the Dolphins split targets between Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and other options will help determine Tua Tagovailoa’s ceiling in this game.
- The Colts have a physical front and solid veterans on defense. Miami’s defense has been improved up front but lost Jalen Ramsey on the back end. Both units should be capable of creating pressure and forcing shorter drives but avoiding penalties on that side of the ball will be key.
Quarterback Play
- Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa missed time again last season due to injuries. The number one key for him this season will be his pass protection and his ability to avoid hits that could yield more head injuries. Tagovailoa is undeniably talented when he is on the field and his weapons make him even more dangerous.
- Daniel Jones: Jones is a conservative choice at quarterback than Richardson would have been. Expect shorter passes and a reliance on the run game to keep the Dolphins’ pass rush from pinning its ears back against Jones. Jones’ mobility is inferior to that of Richardson and that could be a problem for Indy.
Best Player Props
| Player | Pick |
|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | Over 250.5 passing yards |
| Jonathan Taylor | Over 81.5 rushing yards |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | Anytime TD scorer |
| Tyreek Hill | Anytime TD scorer |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Colts won 16-10 over the Dolphins in their last meeting in October of 2024.
- Miami went 7-10 against the spread last season.
- Indianapolis was 9-8 against the spread during the 2024 campaign.
Dolphins vs Colts Model Projection
- Score Projection: Miami Dolphins 21 – Indianapolis Colts 24
- Win Probability: Colts 52% • Dolphins 48%
Final Thoughts
I am not under any delusions about what Daniel Jones is for the Colts. He is meant to be a game manager who feeds Jonathan Taylor and doesn’t make any embarrassing mistakes that ruin his team’s chances of winning. I think that will be good enough to help the Colts win in Week 1 at home against a Dolphins team whose secondary might not be good enough to make Jones pay for errant throws.
