Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Prediction & Picks 10/13/2024

Chargers vs Broncos Betting Odds

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Betting Preview

Their last head-to-head matchup was a low scoring affair. In Week 17 of 2023 the Broncos won at home beating the Chargers 16-9. They say, good teams win, but great teams cover. The Broncos not only won, but covered the -3.5 spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 39.0 and the Under hit.

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #26 in the league with a mere 267 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #3-worst in football with 155 yards per game. It's tough to succeed when you don't have much time to throw, as has been the case for Los Angeles. Their offensive line has ranked just #32 in pass protection. This represents a particular disadvantage for Los Angeles given that the Broncos have excelled in stopping the pass this year, allowing just 6.4 yards per target (#4-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Chargers have ranked #7 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 201 yards per game through the air against them (#24 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 with 4.34 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 3.72 yards per target (#1-best). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 9.05 yards per target (#3-worst).

Denver's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 293 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #5-least yards per game: 4.02. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #4 in yards per target (6.4). This Broncos run defense has been anchored by their defensive tackles, who grade out as the #6-best unit in the NFL. This presents a decided advantage for Denver given that the Chargers have had so little success running the ball this year, managing a mere 4.61 yards per carry (#23-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Broncos check in at #29 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 184 yards per game (#27 in football). Their run game has ranked #24 with 3.92 yards per attempt on the ground.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Chargers 22.12 vs Denver Broncos 18.59

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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