Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Giants Pick – 9/21/2025
The Kansas City Chiefs will head to the Meadowlands for a Sunday Night Football matchup with the New York Giants in Week 3. Both of these teams are off to 0-2 starts for the season and are desperate for a win in this contest. Both teams lost by a field goal in Week 2 and will try to avoid another disappointing defeat in this standalone game. Here, I break down this inter-conference contest in the NFL and give you my Chiefs vs Giants prediction.
Our Chiefs vs Giants Pick
- Pick: Under 44.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Giants
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 8:20 PM ET
- Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- Broadcast: NBC
Key Storylines
- Kansas City has struggled to get things going offensively in their 0-2 start. The Chiefs have averaged 19 points per game in losses to the Chargers and Eagles. They will try to get their offense up and running against a Giants defense that was torched in Week 2.
- New York gave up 40 points in an overtime loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week. The offense of the Giants came alive in that contest, but the defense let them down. The Giants will need to show up on both sides of the ball to beat the reigning AFC champions here.
- This is the first home game of the season for the Giants after they played in Washington and Dallas to begin the year.
Quarterback Play
Patrick Mahomes has 445 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and one interception through two weeks. He also leads the Chiefs in rushing with 123 yards and two rushing touchdowns. That hasn’t been enough to deliver a win for the Chiefs just yet, but Mahomes has fought back from adversity before and will be expected to do so again this year.
Russell Wilson has not been shy about airing it out this season. He has averaged over 300 passing yards per game with three touchdowns and an interception. Over a third of his passing yards have come to wide receiver Malik Nabers and more balance would be a plus for the Giants moving forward.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Chiefs are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread.
- The Giants are 1-1 against the spread for the season.
- Both teams are 1-1 in the over/under market through Week 2.
Chiefs vs Giants Model Projection
Score Projection: Kansas City 20 – New York 17
Win Probability: Kansas City 68%, New York 32%
Final Thoughts
This game features a marquee quarterback matchup between Mahomes and Wilson. Both have won Super Bowls and have made deep playoff runs on several occasions. But I think we are in for a low-scoring game from the Meadowlands here. I’ll take the under in what should be a competitive game where both defenses should have success for the majority of the night.
