Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Prediction For 9/29/2024

Jaguars vs Texans Betting Odds

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Betting Preview

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars faceoff against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. The Texans enter the game as a huge favorite (-300) as the home team. Houston is currently favored by -7.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 45.0.

Jacksonville's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #27 in the league with a mere 3.7 yards per carry. This represents a particular disadvantage for Jacksonville given that the Texans have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 3.64 yards per carry (#2-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Jaguars have ranked #19 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 234 yards per game through the air against them (#9 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 with 4.48 yards per carry. Jacksonville has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 66.2% completion rate (#2-lowest). Jacksonville pass defense has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 41 yards per game (#2-worst).

Houston's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 3.64 yards per attempt on the ground -- #2-best in the NFL. This Texans run defense has been aided by their safeties, who grade out as the #2-best unit in the NFL. This presents a decided advantage for Houston given that the Jaguars have had so little success running the ball this year, managing a mere 3.7 yards per carry (#6-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Texans check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 254 yards per game (#7 in football). Their run game has ranked #29 with 3.67 yards per attempt on the ground.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Prediction

Final Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 26.59 vs Houston Texans 26.12

NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

Check out all our free picks on every NFL game daily in our NFL betting section.