Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick – 9/21/2025
The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars will meet in an AFC South matchup in Week 3 of the NFL season on Sunday. Houston makes the short trip east on a short week after a heartbreaking loss in Week 2. They will look to avoid an 0-3 start against a Jaguars team that is off to a 1-1 start on the season. Before kickoff on Sunday, continue reading to get my Texans vs Jaguars prediction in Week 3.
Our Texans vs Jaguars Pick
- Pick: Jaguars Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Game: Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Jacksonville’s new era under head coach Liam Coen started fast with a 26-10 win over the Carolina Panthers. The Jags followed that up with a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on the road in Week 2 despite Joe Burrow being injured early in that game.
- The Texans are 0-2 after blowing a late lead at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. The Texans have a short rest week going into this weekend’s action and that could make things even tougher for DeMeco Ryans’ team.
- Houston’s running game has really struggled to get going early in the season. Nick Chubb broke a late touchdown run to give the Texans a short-lived lead in the fourth quarter against the Bucs. But the Texans need more sustained success with the run to win some games.
Quarterback Play
C.J. Stroud, Texans: The second‑year star was kept in check by the Rams and Bucs in the first two weeks of the season. Houston has averaged 16.5 points per game in their 0-2 start and Stroud has just one touchdown pass to begin the year. He has to be better if the Texans are going to go from 0-2 to the playoffs.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: Lawrence is always going to make mistakes for the Jaguars. He has three interceptions through two weeks, but he also has four touchdown passes. Lawrence has led the Jags to 26.5 points per game to begin the season and he will try to clean up the turnovers to help his team get a significant win here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston is 0-2 against the spread to start the season.
- Jacksonville is 1-1 against the spread to open the year.
- Both of Houston’s games have stayed under their totals.
- The Jaguars have split their first two games from an over/under perspective.
Texans vs Jaguars Model Projection
Score Projection: Texans 23 – Jaguars 24
Win Probability: Texans 50% – Jaguars 50%
Final Thoughts
This game is a toss-up as far as I’m concerned. I see no reason to assume that the Texans will figure things out offensively given how one-dimensional they have needed to be so far. I’ll go with the Jaguars to get a win to get to 2-1 for the season and to drop the Texans to 0-3 and in danger of missing the playoffs already.
