Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Pick – 9/21/2025
The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers will meet in an AFC West matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos are on the road for the second week in a row and are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season. They will try to do so against a Chargers team playing on a short week of rest after closing out Week 2 on Monday night. Here, I break down this division rivalry game and give you my Broncos vs Chargers prediction.
Our Broncos vs Chargers Pick
- Pick: Chargers -2.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- The Broncos thought they had a Week 2 win over the Indianapolis Colts after a missed field goal by the Colts as time expired. But the Broncos committed a penalty on that attempt and Indy made the game-winner on an untimed down. Denver will try to bounce back from that heartbreaking defeat this week.
- Los Angeles will have one less day to prep for this game than the Broncos will. They played on Monday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 and will have to deal with a rest disadvantage going into this matchup.
- Denver’s defense struggled in their Week 2 loss to the Colts. They gave up over 300 yards to Daniel Jones through the air and over 150 yards to Jonathan Taylor on the ground. The Broncos have to tighten things up on defense to avoid a second straight loss.
- This is the first home game of the season for the Chargers. Los Angeles opened its season in Sao Paulo against the Kansas City Chiefs before playing in Vegas against the Raiders.
Quarterback Play
Justin Herbert looked to be in midseason form in Week 1 against Kansas City. He went 25-of-34 with 318 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a game-sealing 19-yard scramble on third-and-14. Herbert will face a Broncos defense that was very good last year but just got torched by Daniel Jones in Week 2.
Bo Nix has not lived up to the hype surrounding his second season as a pro just yet. He hasn’t thrown for 210 yards yet in a game this season and will try to change that in this game against the Chargers. Nix had four touchdown passes to one interception in two games against the Bolts last season and he will look to get off to a good start against them this year as well.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Denver is 0-2 against the spread to start the 2025 season.
- The Broncos are 1-1 in the over/under market to begin this year.
- The Chargers covered the spread and went over the total in their first game of the season.
Broncos vs Chargers Model Projection
Score Projection: Broncos 20 – Chargers 24
Win Probability: Broncos 43%, Chargers 57%
Final Thoughts
The Chargers have been impressive early in the season. But my real focus heading into this game is how much Bo Nix has struggled early on. I think we see his struggles continue in the Chargers’ first home game of the 2025 season. I will lay the points with the Bolts in the third straight AFC West game of the season for Jim Harbaugh’s team.
