Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears Pick – 9/21/2025
The Dallas Cowboys will visit the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. These teams both opened their seasons with two straight games against division opponents. Dallas went 1-1 against NFC East foes and Chicago went 0-2 against NFC North competition. Before these teams face their first opponents from outside of their division this season, you can continue reading to get my Cowboys vs Bears prediction for Week 3.
Our Cowboys vs Bears Pick
- Pick: Over 49.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears
- Date & Time: Sunday September 21, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
- Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- The Dallas Cowboys lost their season opener to the Philadelphia Eagles. But they bounced back with a 40-37 overtime win over the New York Giants in Week 2. Dallas’ offense will try to build on that 40-point performance this week.
- Micah Parsons was dealt to Green Bay in late August. So far, that decision hasn’t helped things for the Cowboys, who struggled on defense against the Giants last week.
- Ben Johnson’s tenure as the head coach of the Chicago Bears has started with two straight losses to the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. Chicago gave up 52 points to the Lions in Week 2 and will need to be better on defense to have any chance of avoiding a third straight loss.
- CeeDee Lamb has 222 receiving yards through two weeks. But he has yet to find the end zone and will aim to do that in this game.
Quarterback Play
Dak Prescott has over 500 passing yards through two weeks and is near the top of the league in that category. But he has only thrown two touchdown passes and will aim to be more productive in scoring situations to help his team get above the .500 mark for the first time this season.
Caleb Williams is fun to watch, but lacks consistency. He is averaging just over 200 yards per game through the air and is capable of making plays with his legs as well. But the Bears are averaging 22.5 points per game to start the season and need more from their quarterback to improve on that number this week.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Dallas is 1-1 against the spread for the season.
- Chicago is 0-2 against the spread through the first two weeks of the 2025 campaign.
- Chicago has gone over the total in both of their games this year.
- Dallas is 1-1 in the over/under market going into Week 3.
Cowboys vs Bears Model Projection
Score Projection: Bears 27 – Cowboys 24
Win Probability: Bears 58%, Cowboys 42%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think there is a lot separating these teams going into this game. But I think that we are going to see points on both sides of the equation. I’ll take the over in this game, as Dallas’ passing game and the unpredictability of Williams will have both defenses on their heels.
