Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Pick – 9/14/2025
The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets will face off in Week 2 of the NFL season on Sunday. These AFC East rivals will face each other in a key game early in the season as positioning in a very winnable division is on the line. Can the Bills pass their first road test of 2025, or will the Jets get to 1-1 with a win at home? Continue reading for a full breakdown of this game, including my Bills vs Jets prediction.
Our Bills vs Jets Pick
- Pick: Jets +8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- The Buffalo Bills laid an egg at home in their season opener against the Baltimore Ravens, at least for the first three quarters. Buffalo allowed the Ravens to reach the 40-point mark in that game but they came back in the fourth quarter to win 41-40. Their defense has to play better but it certainly pays to have Josh Allen.
- The first game of the Aaron Glenn and Justin Fields era for the Jets ended in defeat. They lost a thriller to the Pittsburgh Steelers, with Aaron Rodgers defeating the Jets in his first time since leaving New York to go to Pittsburgh. New York’s defense also struggled in Week 1 and that could be a problem with Josh Allen waiting this week.
- This is the second week in a row that the Bills’ defense is facing a mobile quarterback. The Bills struggled maintaining their lane assignments when Lamar Jackson improvised and Justin Fields is more than capable of doing the same damage to Buffalo’s defense.
- Bills kicker Tyler Bass is on IR and veteran Matt Prater has taken his place. He kicked well in Week 1 for Buffalo.
Quarterback Play
Josh Allen made plays with both his arm and his legs in Week 1. Allen opened the scoring against the Ravens with a touchdown pass to Dalton Kincaid, added a rushing touchdown in the second half, then led the late comeback for Buffalo. Allen wasn’t the problem for the Bills in Week 1 and the Bills will hope another strong performance from him coincides with some improvement on defense.
Justin Fields had a productive debut for the New York Jets in Week 1. Fields had one passing touchdown and two rushing touchdowns to help the Jets stay competitive in the loss to Pittsburgh. Fields didn’t turn the ball over against the Steelers’ defense and that is an encouraging sign as he gets his feet wet with his new team.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Buffalo is 0-1 against the spread this season.
- The Jets covered the spread despite losing at home in Week 1.
- Both of these teams saw their first game go over the total.
- The Bills are 4-1 in their last five games against the Jets.
Bills vs Jets Model Projection
Score Projection: Bills 27 – Jets 21
Win Probability: Bills 75%, Jets 25%
Final Thoughts
I am taking the points with the New York Jets as a home underdog in this game. Backing home underdogs in division games is always appealing to me. But when you add in that Fields was effective in his first start as a Jet and that the Bills’ defense struggled against a mobile quarterback in Week 1, I feel even better about backing the Jets in what will be a one-possession game.
