Sunday’s all-Texas UFL contest doubles as the regular-season finale for two teams headed in opposite directions. The Arlington Renegades ride into the Alamodome at 4-5 after hammering Memphis 30-12 last weekend, while the San Antonio Brahmas limp home at 1-8 following a 39-13 drubbing in St. Louis. Oddsmakers have installed Arlington as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 41, inviting bettors to decide which Texas team will prevail in this Arlington Renegades vs San Antonio Brahmas matchup.
Arlington Renegades vs San Antonio Brahmas Game Preview
Arlington’s offense finally clicked in Week 9, piling up 134 rushing yards and four red-zone visits that all produced points. Quarterback Luis Perez remains the league’s most accurate passer, completing 70.5% of his throws for 2,015 yards with a 9-to-5 touchdown to interception ratio across nine games. The spring football veteran spreads the ball around efficiently, and his decision-making has limited giveaways after a shaky start to the season.
The Renegades’ defense also deserves credit. Coordinator Jay Hayes dialed up extra pressure packages against Memphis that produced three sacks and a pair of takeaways, holding the Showboats to 42 rushing yards. The Renegades rank third in the UFL in scoring defense going into the final week of the regular season and they have a golden opportunity to put forth another good defensive performance against a struggling opponent to close out their season.
San Antonio’s season has spiraled. Injuries at quarterback forced them to turn back to Kellen Mond, and the former Aggie has struggled, as evidenced by his 103-yard game last week against the Battlehawks. The rushing attack has offered limited relief, which has resulted in the Brahmas having the worst scoring offense in the UFL. On defense, the Brahmas have fallen from last year’s elite status to bottom three in yards allowed per play, conceding 402 total yards to a Battlehawks squad that rested starters after halftime. San Antonio’s 3-6 mark against the spread reflects those problems, though the Brahmas have delivered six overs in nine tries thanks to a leaky defense.
Betting Insights
- Spread: Arlington -3.5
- Total: 41
- Moneyline: Renegades -198, Brahmas +164
- Arlington is 5-4 ATS and 6-3 O/U
- San Antonio is 3-6 ATS and 6-3 O/U
- The teams met once this season in Week 1. The Renegades won 33-9.
- Luis Perez leads the league in completions and completion rate for Arlington.
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Arlington Renegades vs San Antonio Brahmas Prediction
Barring a sudden turnaround, San Antonio lacks the explosive plays to keep pace with a Renegades squad playing respectably despite missing the playoffs this year. Perez’s efficient underneath passing should stretch San Antonio’s linebackers, their running game should do enough to keep the Brahmas defense honest. Mond’s mobility can buy time, but his reluctance to attack deep, combined with a struggling running game, restricts the Brahmas’ scoring ceiling. Arlington also carries motivational edges: a win secures a tidy .500 finish, whereas San Antonio has been eliminated and already shifted emphasis to evaluating young reserves.
Expect the Renegades to lean on a balanced attack, win the possession battle, and force San Antonio into long third downs where they can unleash their edge rushers. With both clubs trending over the total this year, the number is tempting, but the Brahmas’ offensive woes and Arlington’s improving red-zone defense steer this handicap toward a lower score.
Final projection: Renegades 24, Brahmas 16, good for a Renegades cover and a close under.
