The United Football League schedule brings a consolation contest to Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on Saturday afternoon as the Arlington Renegades visit the Memphis Showboats for Week 9 action on May 24 at 12:00 PM ET. Both clubs enter the weekend already eliminated from playoff contention in their respective conferences. But there are still opportunities for profit betting this Arlington Renegades vs Memphis Showboats matchup.
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Arlington Renegades vs Memphis Showboats Game Preview
Arlington (3-5) arrives after a razor-thin 33-30 road loss to the DC Defenders, a game that underscored quarterback Luis Perez’s importance. The veteran ranks second in the league with 1,809 passing yards while completing 70.9% of his throws. Although his touchdown count sits at seven, his ability to pepper every level of the field has helped wideout Tyler Vaughns and tight end Sal Cannella combine for over 700 receiving yards, while Bob Stoops’ offense averages 22.0 points.
The Renegades’ ground game has been steady, if unspectacular, with Kalen Ballage leading them on the ground at 306 yards. Ballage ranks fifth in the UFL in rushing yards so far this season and Arlington could lean heavily on him to help salt this game away if they can take an early lead against the struggling Showboats.
Memphis (2-6) snapped a four-game slide by edging the San Antonio Brahmas 24-22 in overtime last Friday. Jonathan Adams continues to headline the offense; his 418 receiving yards rank third in the league, and his frame makes him an ideal red-zone target. Quarterback play has been a mess for Memphis this year, with Dresser Winn emerging as their top option with mixed results.
The Showboats’ rushing attack has not been much better than its passing game. Deneric Prince leads the team with 276 rushing yards on 3.2 yards per carry. Getting the running game going could be key for the Showboats if they want to get a second win in a row going into the final week of their 2025 season in Week 10.
Betting Insights
- Spread: Renegades -4
- Moneyline: Renegades -215 / Showboats +176
- Total: 40.5 points
Key Trends:
- Memphis is 0-3 at home this season and has not scored more than 20 points in a home game in 2025.
- The Under has cashed in three straight Showboats games at Liberty Stadium.
Matchup edges:
- Quarterback efficiency: Perez is clearly better than any quarterback option the Showboats have. Memphis must disrupt pocket rhythm early to neutralize this.
- Receiver depth: Arlington trots out Vaughns, Burnett and Cannella; Memphis relies heavily on Adams, with Kwamie Lassiter II as the secondary option.
- Pass rush: The Renegades generate pressure on a higher percentage of drop-backs, while Memphis has struggled to protect its quarterbacks.
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Arlington Renegades vs Memphis Showboats Prediction
The market is making Arlington just over a field goal favorite. Yet a deeper data dive suggests Arlington holds advantages in every primary efficiency metric: yards per play, third-down conversion rate, and sack rate differential are especially glaring. Perez’s quick-release passing game should move the chains against a Showboats defense that often drops into soft zones to hide its thin cornerback depth.
Memphis will attempt to control tempo with on the ground and selectively feed Adams on go routes, but consistent drives have been elusive. Arlington’s secondary can sit on underneath routes. Should the Renegades force two-plus turnovers, the visitors will dictate the game’s tempo throughout.
Best Bet: Renegades -4. Arlington’s superior quarterback play and pass rush give them a clear path to a 24-16 victory, covering the number and sliding Under the total.
