The Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat will face off on Friday at FedExForum in Memphis. Both teams enter the game following opposite results in their season openers. The Grizzlies secured a high-scoring victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, while the Heat suffered a loss to the Orlando Magic. Before these teams tip off from Memphis, continue reading to get my Heat vs Grizzlies prediction for Friday night.
Our Heat vs Grizzlies Pick
- Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies
- Date & Time: Friday, October 24, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
- Injuries: Ja Morant is questionable due to a left ankle sprain, which has raised concerns about Memphis’ early-season form. If he can play, the Grizzlies will be in good shape tonight, but that is not a guarantee. Memphis is also set to be without key players like Zach Edey and Ty Jerome. Miami is without Tyler Herro.
- Heat’s Opening Loss: Miami’s loss to Orlando highlighted areas for improvement, particularly in closing out tight games. The Heat will aim to rectify these issues in this matchup.
- Home-Court Advantage: Memphis’ home-court advantage has been significant, which we saw in their win over the Peleicans in the opening game of the season.
- Terry Rozier: The Heat guard is out as he is involved in a federal probe around gambling activity. The Heat could use him on the court, but they are also in danger of that situation becoming a distraction.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Recent Matchups: Memphis has won seven of the last 10 meetings against Miami.
- Against the Spread (ATS): Both of these teams covered the spread in their season openers.
- Over/Under (O/U): Both teams went over the total in their season opening matchups.
- Home/Away Splits: Memphis won their first game of the season at home and Miami dropped their opener on the road.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM) | Over 2.5 Blocks |
| Bam Adebayo (MIA) | Over 9.5 Rebounds |
Heat vs Grizzlies Model Projection
Score Projection: Memphis Grizzlies 118 – Miami Heat 110
Win Probability: Grizzlies 65%, Heat 35%
Final Thoughts
The outcome of this game could depend on whether or not Ja Morant is able to play in this matchup. But without knowing his status for sure, I would lean toward the Grizzlies to win and cover the spread in this contest. Memphis should take advantage of the absences on the perimeter for Miami and I’ll lay the points with the Grizzlies tonight.
