The 109th Indianapolis 500 arrives this Sunday, May 25, with storylines as wide as the Speedway’s front stretch. A rookie on pole, established champions scattered through the pack, and shock penalties for Team Penske have flipped the formbook just six days before the green flag. Robert Shwartzman, a first-year IndyCar driver, stunned everyone by recording a four-lap average of 232.790 mph to secure pole. Right beside him sit two-time Indy 500 winner Takuma Sato and perennial contender Pato O’Ward, setting up a fascinating blend of experience and youth up front. Meanwhile, Josef Newgarden and Will Power, both past winners, have been sent to the final row after their cars failed technical inspection, changing the complexion of race strategy and the betting markets.
2025 Indy 500 Preview
Shwartzman’s unprecedented performance headlines the front row and injects fresh intrigue into a race often dominated by veterans. His PREMA Racing Chevrolet was quick in clean air all week, yet the rookie faces an entirely different test once the field compresses into turn one. Flanking him:
- Takuma Sato, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Honda, 232.478 mph
- Pato O’Ward, Arrow McLaren Chevrolet, 232.098 mph
The second row features two champions who excel on long green-flag runs:
- Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Honda, 232.052 mph
- Felix Rosenqvist, Meyer Shank Honda, 231.987 mph
- Alex Palou, Chip Ganassi Honda, 231.378 mph
Dixon posted the best four-lap average during Fast Friday, while Palou arrives on a hot streak after winning four of the season’s first five races, including the Sonsio Grand Prix on the IMS road course. Arrow McLaren’s O’Ward carries two runner-up medals from the past three 500s and believes this is his best shot yet. Rosenqvist, enjoying a rejuvenated campaign with Meyer Shank, showed top-five pace in every practice session.
Team Penske’s week turned on its head. Scott McLaughlin set Friday’s fastest single lap at 233.954 mph but brushed the wall during qualifying and starts tenth. Newgarden, chasing an unprecedented third consecutive win, and Power now begin 32nd and 33rd after rear-attenuator infractions. Their Chevrolet engines looked strong in traffic drills, yet they must slice through thirty cars before thinking about milk.
Further back, Kyle Larson makes his highly anticipated first Indy 500 start, rolling off nineteenth for Hendrick Arrow McLaren. The NASCAR champion impressed with calm drafting runs and a best practice speed of 224.811 mph, suggesting he could move forward once the race trim settles.
Indianapolis 500 Betting Insights
Oddsmakers at bet365 list the outright market as follows:
- Alex Palou +500
- Pato O’Ward +600
- Scott Dixon +650
- Josef Newgarden +800
- Robert Schwartzman +1000
- Scott McLaughlin +1000
- Felix Rosenqvist +1100
- Takuma Sato +1200
- Kyle Larson +1600
- Will Power +2000
The market favors Palou, whose form is impossible to ignore; the Spaniard leads the season standings with an average finish of 1.2, though luck has deserted him at this oval in prior years. O’Ward’s raw speed and recent Indy 500 near-misses make him a serious contender as well.
Meanwhile, history shows that only six pole sitters have won since 2000, explaining why Shwartzman remains fifth choice. Dixon offers compelling value given his race-day mastery, fuel-saving prowess, and six previous top-five finishes here in the past decade. Sato’s reputation for aggressive late dives suits the current aero package, while Rosenqvist at +1100 could reward bettors seeking a mid-tier price after his consistent month.
Punters intrigued by longer odds may examine Colton Herta at +2200. Although his qualifying effort disappointed, Andretti Global’s street-course setups have translated well to race-day balance in recent seasons. Likewise, Helio Castroneves at +2800 chases a historic fifth victory and still showed top-ten no-tow speed numbers during Thursday practice.
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2025 Indy 500 Prediction
Fuel mileage, tire degradation, and the timing of cautions will dictate the 500-mile chess match, especially with the new hybrid assist system adding strategic wrinkles. Expect Dixon and Palou to conserve fuel early, setting up a late sprint. O’Ward will attack from the drop of the green, aiming to control the opening stint, while Shwartzman’s task is to avoid trouble and learn on the fly.
Considering pace, experience, and pit-crew efficiency, Scott Dixon emerges as the most balanced pick. His car delivered the strongest four-lap averages in simulated race trim, Ganassi pit stops ranked first in stop-and-go time this month, and Dixon’s uncanny ability to stretch fuel often flips track position in his favor. At +650 the return is attractive relative to his probability. Look for Palou to charge late for a podium, with O’Ward completing the top three. Rosenqvist projects as the best dark-horse to crack victory lane. Bettors seeking plus-money on match-up markets might pair Dixon outright win exposure with head-to-head wagers on Rosenqvist over McLaughlin and Sato over Shwartzman, balancing risk across varied scenarios.
