Heavyweight contenders Sergei Pavlovich and Waldo Cortes-Acosta will meet at UFC Fight Night in Shanghai. Pavlovich enters as a heavy favorite thanks to his devastating power and improved wrestling. But Cortes-Acosta has knockout power and will look to win this battle of top 10 heavyweights. Here, I have broken down this fight and you can find my Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction below.
Our Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Pick
- Pick: Sergei Pavlovich via knockout
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For Fight Night: Use bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets for this fight!
Tale of the Tape
| Sergei Pavlovich | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 33 |
| Reach | 84″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Record | 19-3-0 | 14-1-0 |
Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Preview
Sergei Pavlovich brings fearsome power into this matchup. He enjoyed a historic six-fight first-round knockout streak between 2019 and 2023 and has earned four “Performance of the Night” bonuses. He hasn’t earned a knockout win since 2023 and will look to do so for the first time in a long time on Saturday. Pavlovich snapped a two-fight losing streak by beating Jairzinho Rozenstruik in February and will aim for a second win in a row.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 14-1 and has won five straight fights since his lone loss in 2023. Recent wins over Ryan Spann via knockout and Serghei Spivac by decision reflect his growth in multiple areas of MMA. His high volume of output has made him one of the most efficient heavyweight strikers in the division. But defense will be the key to this fight for the Dominican as he needs to avoid the knockout shots that Pavlovich is known to throw.
Betting Insights
- Pavlovich is a heavy favorite across sportsbooks. He is -258 to get the win and Cortes-Acosta is a +210 underdog.
- The total for this fight implies that we could see either an early finish or a fight that lasts a long time. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds and the over is favored at -180. But an early finish is within the realm of possibility.
- Cortes-Acosta has seen three of his last four fights go the distance.
- Pavlovich has had two straight fights go to the judges after his first eight UFC fights ended with knockouts.
Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction
The question going into this fight is whether the volume striking of Cortes-Acosta will be enough to prevent Pavlovich from getting into a rhythm with his striking. Cortes-Acosta will be the busier fighter here but he could leave himself exposed to power shots if he isn’t careful with his aggression.
I expect Cortes-Acosta to start strong, but for Pavlovich to endure the early storm and impose his will as the fight wears on. My best bet for this matchup is for Pavlovich to get the win via knockout in this matchup as he should get back on track after a couple of fights that went to uncharacteristic decisions over the last couple of years.
