Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies, currently holding a strong 73-50 record, are poised to face off against the Washington Nationals, who sit at 55-69. This National League East matchup is crucial for the Phillies as they continue their pursuit of postseason success. The Phillies are enjoying a solid season, ranking 7th in MLB in offensive performance, while the Nationals struggle with a 22nd overall ranking.

In their last game, the Phillies showcased their talent with a powerful offensive display, further solidifying their status as a playoff contender. The projections indicate that the Phillies are expected to score an impressive 5.55 runs today, which supports their status as significant favorites with a moneyline of -175.

On the mound, Taijuan Walker is set to start for the Phillies. Despite his 3-4 record and a troubling ERA of 5.68, his xFIP of 4.90 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season and may improve. Walker’s low strikeout rate (19.3 K%) could be a concern against a Nationals lineup that has the 6th least strikeouts in MLB, but his high flyball rate (36 FB%) may work in his favor against a Nationals offense that ranks 29th in home runs.

Jake Irvin will take the hill for the Nationals, bringing a respectable 3.72 ERA to the game. However, he faces a tough challenge against a Phillies offense that ranks 3rd in batting average and 6th in home runs. Given the Phillies' offensive prowess and the projections favoring them heavily, they look to capitalize on their strengths and secure a win at Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Juan Yepez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Juan Yepez pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 11th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker's slider utilization has risen by 7.6% from last year to this one (2.8% to 10.4%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Bryce Harper will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order projects as the 3rd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+13.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 117 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Alex Call has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+9.90 Units / 25% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.56 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.91

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