Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 8/15/2024

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: August 15, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Washington Nationals on August 15, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position in the National League East with a record of 70-50. The Phillies are having a great season, bolstered by an offense that ranks 7th best in MLB this year. In contrast, the Nationals sit at 55-66, struggling with a 22nd best offense.

In their last outings, the Nationals lost to the Baltimore Orioles, while the Phillies got a win over the Miami Marlins. This matchup marks the beginning of a series between these two rivals, which adds a layer of intensity to the game.

Zack Wheeler, projected to start for the Phillies, has been a standout this season, boasting an impressive 2.78 ERA and a solid 11-5 win/loss record. Wheeler is currently ranked as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, indicating his elite status. However, he faces a Nationals lineup that is among the league's least strikeout-prone offenses. This could present a challenge for Wheeler, who typically thrives on generating strikeouts.

On the other side, Mitchell Parker, set to take the mound for the Nationals, has had a rough season. His ERA sits at 3.83, but advanced stats suggest he may have been fortunate, with a higher xERA of 4.50. Parker's ability to limit walks could come in handy against a Phillies team that ranks 4th in MLB for walks drawn.

With the Phillies heavily favored in this matchup, their potent offense and Wheeler's strong performance make them a team to watch. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a competitive atmosphere, but the Phillies' current form suggests they could exceed expectations.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker is expected to throw 82 pitches in today's game, which is the 12th-highest number of pitches for all pitchers on the slate today. This estimate is based on his inherent tendencies and the nature of the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Alex Call has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .435 mark is a good deal higher than his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup ranks as the worst on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler has relied on his change-up 7.6% more often this year (8%) than he did last season (0.4%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Trea Turner has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 7.3% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 53 games at home (+14.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 112 games (+9.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.45 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.32

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