Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick – 5/19/2024

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Washington Nationals on May 19, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, boasting an impressive record of 33-14, are having a great season, while the Nationals, with a below-average record of 20-24, have struggled so far.

The Phillies are projected to start their ace, right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola, who has been one of the top 31 starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Nola has started 9 games this year, earning a solid 5-2 record with an excellent ERA of 3.10. He is expected to pitch around 6.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters per game. However, Nola has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projecting 5.1 hits and 1.2 walks per game, respectively.

On the other side, the Nationals will counter with right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Williams has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season. He has started 8 games, recording a perfect 4-0 record with an outstanding ERA of 1.94. However, his 3.89 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Williams is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs and striking out 4.1 batters per game. He also projects to give up 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks per game.

The Phillies' offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 4th best in MLB. They have showcased their talent with a solid team batting average, ranking 8th in the league, and a good ranking of 10th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Nationals' offense has struggled, ranking as the 28th best in MLB. Although they have a decent team batting average, ranking 6th in the league, their lack of power is evident, ranking 29th in home runs.

In terms of the bullpen, the Phillies have one of the best in MLB, ranking 3rd according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Nationals' bullpen ranks as the 29th worst in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the big betting favorites with an implied win probability of 68%. The Nationals, on the other hand, are the underdogs with an implied win probability of 32%. The Phillies also have a higher implied team total of 4.52 runs compared to the Nationals' 2.98 runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Trevor Williams has utilized his secondary pitches 8.8% more often this year (51.1%) than he did last season (42.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This year, there has been a decline in Keibert Ruiz's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.09 ft/sec last year to 24.42 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Washington Nationals projected offense ranks as the 4th-worst of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola's fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (90.8 mph) below where it was last year (92.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

When it comes to his home runs, Johan Rojas has been lucky since the start of last season. His 8.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 0.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 23 games (+16.35 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+12.20 Units / 152% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.52 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.23

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.