Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/9/2024

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are set to host the Washington Nationals on July 9, 2024, at Citi Field in a National League East matchup. The Mets, with a 44-45 record, are having an average season, while the Nationals, at 42-49, are performing below average. This game marks the first in the series between the two teams.

On the mound, the Mets will start left-hander Jose Quintana, who has struggled this season. Quintana holds a 3-5 record with a 4.22 ERA over 17 starts. However, his 5.34 xERA suggests he's been fortunate and might face regression. Quintana's low strikeout rate (17.1%) could be a disadvantage against the Nationals, who rank 6th in least strikeouts in MLB. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Quintana to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 5.9 hits, and 1.2 walks.

The Nationals will counter with right-hander Jake Irvin, who has been a solid presence on the mound. Irvin boasts a 7-6 record with an impressive 2.80 ERA over 18 starts. However, his 3.61 xFIP suggests some luck has been on his side. Projections indicate Irvin will pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.6 walks.

Offensively, the Mets have been stronger, ranking 11th in MLB in batting average and 4th in home runs. Recently, Brandon Nimmo has been leading the charge, hitting .320 with a .913 OPS over the last week, including 1 home run and 3 stolen bases. On the other side, the Nationals' offense ranks 23rd overall but shines in stolen bases, where they rank 3rd. Luis Garcia has been on a tear, hitting .500 with a 1.545 OPS over the last week, including 3 home runs and 8 RBIs.

The Mets' bullpen ranks 18th in power rankings, while the Nationals' bullpen lags at 29th, indicating a potential late-game advantage for New York. Despite the Mets being slight favorites with a moneyline of -135, the betting markets expect a close game with a total of 8.5 runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin was rolling in his last outing and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams's true offensive talent to be a .315, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .049 disparity between that mark and his actual .364 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana projects to average 17.3 outs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Brandon Nimmo has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+11.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 87 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+15.75 Units / 72% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.99 vs New York Mets 4.96

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