Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 5/16/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Washington Nationals on May 16, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the early season. The Orioles currently hold a record of 15-27, while the Nationals are slightly better at 18-27. Neither team is in a favorable position, and both are looking to turn their fortunes around in this Interleague matchup.

In their last outing, the Orioles experienced another setback, which adds to their woes this season. Cade Povich is projected to take the mound for Baltimore. He has struggled mightily this year, with a 1-3 record and a troubling 5.55 ERA. His advanced metrics reflect a bit of bad luck, as his 4.36 xFIP suggests he could improve. However, his projections for just 4.9 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed today indicate he might not be able to hold down the Nationals' offense.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore is slated to start for Washington. With a record of 2-4 and a solid 3.59 ERA, Gore has been the more reliable option. His 2.60 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky as well, and he is projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs. Gore's ability to strike out 6.2 batters on average today gives him an edge over Povich.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 22nd overall, with a particularly poor team batting average of .226. In contrast, the Nationals, ranked 20th in the league, have a slightly better batting average and have shown more power potential, ranking 18th in home runs. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting an expectation for some scoring, but both teams' offensive struggles could dampen that outlook.

Given the current conditions, the projections favor the Nationals over the Orioles, despite both teams' records indicating a close matchup. Baltimore's pitching struggles against Washington's more competent lineup may tip the scales in favor of the Nationals in this contest.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball batters like Josh Bell are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Povich.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Washington's 8° launch angle (an advanced metric to assess the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in Major League Baseball this year: #30 overall.

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.32 Units / 33% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 5.01, Baltimore Orioles 5.14

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

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