Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/29/2024

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 29, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on May 29, 2024. The Braves, who boast a record of 31-21 this season, are having a great year and currently hold the home-field advantage. On the other hand, the Nationals are having a below-average season with a record of 24-29.

The Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryce Elder, while the Nationals will counter with left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Elder, known for his right-handed prowess, will look to showcase his skills against the Nationals' lineup. Gore, on the other hand, is considered the #69 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him an above-average pitcher.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 64%. This is higher than the implied win probability of 59% based on the current betting odds. THE BAT X also projects the Braves to score an average of 5.47 runs, while the Nationals are projected to score 4.31 runs on average.

In terms of pitching, MacKenzie Gore has been solid this season with a 3-4 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.04. However, his xERA suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Additionally, the Braves' offense, known for its low strikeout rate, may pose a challenge for Gore, who relies on his high strikeout percentage.

With the Braves' strong offense and a favorable projection, there may be value in betting on the Braves in this game. However, as with any baseball game, anything can happen on the field. Fans can expect an exciting National League East matchup as the Braves and Nationals battle it out at Truist Park.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, MacKenzie Gore has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 5.9 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Gallo in the 0th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The 3rd-weakest projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Washington Nationals have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Ozzie Albies will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against MacKenzie Gore in this game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 6th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 34 games (+18.25 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games (+8.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.31 vs Atlanta Braves 5.47

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