Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals on August 17, 2024, in a crucial National League East matchup. The Phillies, sitting at 72-50, are enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals are struggling at 55-68. In their last game, the Phillies got a walk-off win over the Nationals, which was the third straight win for Philadelphia.

Cristopher Sanchez is projected to take the mound for the Phillies. The left-handed pitcher has had an inconsistent season, posting an 8-8 record with a solid 3.63 ERA. However, his 2.77 FIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see improved performance moving forward. Sanchez tends to generate ground balls (59% GB%) and faces a Nationals offense that ranks 29th in home runs this season, indicating a favorable matchup for him.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore will start for the Nationals. With a record of 7-10 and a 4.50 ERA, Gore's season has been less than stellar. With a high walk rate (9.5 BB%), he faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in walks drawn, potentially allowing Philadelphia to capitalize on his control issues.

Offensively, the Phillies boast the 7th best offense in MLB and rank 3rd in batting average. Meanwhile, the Nationals find themselves 22nd overall, further emphasizing the disparity between these two lineups. Trea Turner has been the Phillies' standout hitter recently, contributing significantly with a .409 batting average over the past week.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -205, reflecting their strong position against a struggling Nationals team. As both teams vie for momentum, this matchup offers an intriguing look at how the Phillies' potent offense will fare against a pitcher in Gore who has struggled with consistency.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore has used his change-up 5.5% more often this season (8.4%) than he did last season (2.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

James Wood has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.7-mph to 97.5-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Washington Nationals projected offense profiles as the 2nd-worst of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2073 rpm) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (2125 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Trea Turner has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .302 figure is considerably higher than his .246 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games at home (+14.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 115 games (+10.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+9.15 Units / 65% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.73 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.55

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