Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 5/17/2024

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park on May 17, 2024. The Phillies, with a record of 31-14, are having a great season, while the Nationals, with a record of 20-22, are having a below-average season.

The Phillies will send right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler to the mound, who has been one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Wheeler has started nine games this year, boasting a 4-3 record with an excellent ERA of 2.53. He is projected to pitch around 6.5 innings and strike out an average of 6.3 batters per game. However, he is projected to allow 5.5 hits and 1.2 walks, which are areas of concern.

On the other side, the Nationals will start right-handed pitcher Jake Irvin. Irvin has started eight games this year, with a 2-3 record and a good ERA of 3.55. However, his 4.76 xERA suggests that he has been lucky this season and may perform worse going forward. Irvin is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow an average of 2.8 earned runs per game. He is also projected to strike out 4.4 batters but allow 5.5 hits and 1.7 walks on average.

The Phillies have a strong offense, ranking as the 4th best in MLB this season. They have a good team batting average, ranking 8th in the league, and a solid ranking of 10th in stolen bases. The Nationals, on the other hand, have a below-average offense, ranking 24th in MLB. However, their team batting average is 6th in the league, showing their underlying talent.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Phillies have the 5th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Nationals have the worst bullpen, ranking 30th. This could give the Phillies an advantage in the later innings of the game.

The Phillies are the home team and have a strong projected win probability of 70% according to the current moneyline odds. The Nationals, as the away team, are considered massive underdogs with a win probability of 30%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

Overall, the Phillies have the advantage in this matchup. With their strong offense, elite starting pitcher in Zack Wheeler, and a solid bullpen, they are expected to come out on top against the struggling Nationals. However, anything can happen in baseball, so it will be an exciting game to watch.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Keibert Ruiz's true offensive ability to be a .299, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .121 deviation between that mark and his actual .178 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Washington Nationals projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-weakest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler has gone to his slider 14.9% less often this year (11.7%) than he did last year (26.6%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen ranks as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 23 games (+16.55 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 37 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.15 Units / 81% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.19 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.02

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