Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Washington Nationals on August 16, 2024, they enter with a strong 71-50 record, sitting comfortably in contention for a playoff spot. The Nationals, on the other hand, are struggling at 55-67, having had a below-average season. In their last matchup, the Phillies had a commanding victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.

The game is set to feature a compelling pitching duel, with Aaron Nola slated to start for the Phillies and Patrick Corbin for the Nationals. Nola, who is having a solid season with an 11-6 record and a 3.60 ERA, ranks as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He projects to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.8 batters. The projections indicate that Nola is set for a strong outing against a Nationals lineup that ranks 22nd in MLB offensively.

Conversely, Corbin’s performance has been less than stellar this season, with a 2-12 record and a 5.98 ERA. His struggles are evident, as he projects to pitch only 5.0 innings and allow an average of 3.5 earned runs. His expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) of 4.36 suggests he has faced some bad luck, but his performance remains a concern in this matchup.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 7th in MLB, bolstered by a lineup that includes Bryce Harper, who has been their best hitter lately. The Nationals have also put together a decent offense, but their 29th rank in home runs reflects a significant power deficiency. With a high game total of 9.0 runs, the Phillies are considerable favorites with an implied team total of 5.51 runs, while the Nationals sit at just 3.49. Expect the Phillies to leverage their strong lineup against Corbin, increasing their chances of continuing their winning ways.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin's 90.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 12th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last 7 days, Luis Garcia's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 3rd-weakest projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 4.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Trea Turner has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 81-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 59 games at home (+14.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+10.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Weston Wilson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+9.60 Units / 160% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.85 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.85

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