Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians Pick & Prediction – 5/31/2024

Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Guardians have been having a fantastic season with a record of 37-19, positioning themselves as one of the top teams in the league. Their strong performance can be attributed to their solid offensive lineup and their impressive bullpen, which ranks as the 5th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Nationals, on the other hand, have been struggling with a below-average season, holding a record of 26-29. Their offense has been lackluster, ranking 24th in MLB, while their bullpen has been one of the weakest in the league, ranking 28th according to our Power Rankings.

In this game, the Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee. Bibee has been a reliable starter for the Guardians this season, boasting a solid record of 3-1 and an ERA of 3.99. Our Power Rankings consider him to be the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness on the mound.

On the other side, the Nationals will likely start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin. Corbin has had a tough season, struggling with a record of 1-5 and a high ERA of 6.12. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and might perform better going forward.

The Guardians have a strong offensive lineup, ranking 11th in MLB overall. Despite ranking low in team home runs, they compensate with their ability to steal bases, ranking 7th in the league in that category. The Nationals, meanwhile, have a weaker offense, ranking 24th overall. However, their team batting average is impressive, ranking 6th in MLB.

Considering the projections and the overall performance of both teams, the Guardians are the favorites to win this game with an implied win probability of 65%. The Nationals, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 35%. Based on the current odds, the Guardians have a high implied team total of 4.69 runs, while the Nationals have a lower implied team total of 3.31 runs.

With a strong starting pitcher in Bibee and a solid offensive lineup, the Guardians have a significant advantage going into this matchup. As the game progresses, Bibee's ability to induce flyballs against the Nationals' weak power-hitting lineup may work in his favor. On the other hand, Corbin's low strikeout rate may not be as effective against a Guardians offense that excels at avoiding strikeouts.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin's 90.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 15th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Tanner Bibee will post an average of 17.8 outs in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Austin Hedges's 0.7% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) is in the 14th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+9.30 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 47 games (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 71% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.53 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.03

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