Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Preview – 7/6/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As we approach July 6, 2024, the Seattle Mariners (49-41) will host the Toronto Blue Jays (39-49) in the second game of their series at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, enjoying an above-average season, currently hold the upper hand in the standings compared to the struggling Blue Jays.

Seattle's Emerson Hancock, with a 3-3 record and a 4.79 ERA, gets the nod on the mound. Despite his below-average ERA, peripheral indicators suggest Hancock's been fortunate so far, with a 6.08 xERA hinting at potential regression. Hancock's low strikeout rate (13.5 K%) could be problematic against a Blue Jays offense known for being tough to strike out (5th least strikeouts in MLB). However, Hancock's high-flyball tendencies could work to his advantage against Toronto's low-power lineup, which ranks 28th in home runs.

Yariel Rodriguez will start for the Blue Jays, carrying an 0-3 record and a 4.44 ERA into the game. Though his ERA is average, Rodriguez's innings pitched projection is relatively low at 4.5 innings. He's expected to struggle with control, as projected to allow 1.9 walks on average.

Offensively, the Mariners have had difficulties, ranking 26th overall and dead last in team batting average. However, they do hit for power, ranking 11th in home runs. Josh Rojas has been a bright spot recently, hitting .313 with a .796 OPS over the last seven games. On the flip side, Toronto's offense is middling, ranked 17th, but has shown flashes with George Springer hitting .333 with a 1.011 OPS and one home run over the past week.

Betting markets imply a 54% chance for a Mariners win (-130 moneyline), and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees it similarly, giving Seattle a 52% win probability. In what projects to be a close matchup, the Mariners look slightly more favorable, especially given their home-field advantage and overall better season.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Seattle Mariners have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Yariel Rodriguez in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kevin Kiermaier has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (91.3 mph) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (92.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Julio Rodriguez's true offensive talent to be a .352, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .072 difference between that figure and his actual .280 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 away games (+8.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.53 vs Seattle Mariners 4.39

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