The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Friday. The Blue Jays are trying to move closer to locking up the AL East title, while the Royals are just trying to avoid being eliminated from postseason contention. Here, I break down this American League matchup and give you my Blue Jays vs Royals prediction.
Our Blue Jays vs Royals Pick
- Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals
- Date & Time: Friday, September 19, 2025, 7:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer (TOR) vs Michael Lorenzen (KC)
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Max Scherzer (5-3, 4.31 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto. The 40-year-old right-hander has been a reliable presence in the rotation for the Jays. He has a 1.16 WHIP and 75 strikeouts over 79.1 innings. Scherzer’s experience and postseason pedigree make him a tough opponent for the Royals and anyone else he faces down the stretch.
Opposing Scherzer is Michael Lorenzen (5-11, 4.91 ERA) for Kansas City. Lorenzen has struggled with consistency this season, allowing 141 hits in 128.1 innings. His 1.38 WHIP and 114 strikeouts indicate that he has not been able to generate strikeouts quite enough to keep the basepaths clear.
Recent Team Streaks
Toronto enters the series after a 4-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, where their offense was limited to just four hits. They have lost two straight games going into this series but they still hold a three-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East race.
Kansas City has faced challenges, dropping their most recent series to the Seattle Mariners. In their last game, they were shut out 2-0 and wasted a strong pitching performance from Stephen Kolek. The Royals’ offense has been inconsistent, struggling to provide support for their pitchers. That will need to change if they want to win this game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Davis Schneider | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Royals lead the season series between these teams 2-1.
- Two of the three games between these teams earlier in the season went over their totals.
- Toronto is 39-39 on the road for the season.
- Kansas City is 41-37 at home for the year.
Blue Jays vs Royals Model Projection
- Score Projection: Blue Jays 5 – Royals 4
- Win Probability: Blue Jays 54%, Royals 46%
Final Thoughts
With Scherzer on the mound and a potent lineup, the Blue Jays are well-positioned to secure a victory against the Royals. While Kansas City has been competitive for most of the year, their recent struggles and inconsistencies make them deserved underdogs in this matchup. Toronto’s depth and experience give them the edge, making them the most likely team to win this game.
