Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick & Preview – 5/25/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Reese Olson - Tigers

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays are set to face off in an American League matchup at Comerica Park on May 25, 2024. The Tigers, with a record of 24-27 this season, are having a below-average season, while the Blue Jays, with a record of 23-27, are also struggling.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Reese Olson, who has a 0-5 win/loss record this year. Olson has been impressive with a 2.16 ERA, but his 3.80 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could regress going forward. On the other hand, the Blue Jays are sending right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios, with a 5-3 record and a 2.98 ERA, has been solid this season, although his 4.14 xFIP indicates some potential regression.

This game is the third in the series between these two teams, with the Tigers winning the previous matchup by a score of 6-2. The Tigers' offense, ranked 25th in MLB, has struggled this season, but they have found success against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays, with the 19th-ranked offense, have been led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., their standout hitter with a .288 batting average and a .795 OPS.

In their previous game, the Tigers had a closing Moneyline price of -105, implying a 49% chance of winning, while the Blue Jays had a closing Moneyline price of -115, suggesting a 51% chance of winning. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers have a 54% win probability, indicating potential value in betting on them.

The Tigers' bullpen, ranked 12th in MLB, could provide additional support in this matchup, while the Blue Jays' bullpen, ranked 11th, is also solid. Both teams have average-ranked offenses, with the Tigers ranking poorly in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

With a game total of 8.0 runs, THE BAT X projects the Tigers to score an average of 4.57 runs, compared to the Blue Jays' 4.45 runs. The Tigers have an implied team total of 3.95 runs, while the Blue Jays have an implied team total of 4.05 runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Tallying 18.1 outs per GS this year on average, Jose Berrios falls in the 93rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

George Springer has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson's change-up percentage has jumped by 8.4% from last season to this one (15.2% to 23.6%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Gio Urshela's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.54 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.56 vs Detroit Tigers 4.43

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