Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 6/24/2025

On June 24, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Progressive Field for the first game of their series. Both teams come into this matchup with slightly better-than-average records, with the Blue Jays at 41-36 and the Guardians at 39-37. However, the Guardians are struggling to find consistency and rank as the 26th best offense in MLB this season, a stark contrast to the Blue Jays, who are 13th overall.

Toronto's offensive prowess could prove crucial against Guardians' starter Logan Allen, who has had a mediocre season with a 4.21 ERA and ranks as the 276th best starting pitcher, according to advanced statistics.

Allen's low strikeout rate (17.1 K%) may not serve him well against a Blue Jays lineup that has the fewest strikeouts in MLB. Additionally, he projects to struggle today, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs and 6.1 hits. Meanwhile, Eric Lauer, the Blue Jays' projected starter, boasts an impressive 2.29 ERA, even if his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for regression.

With both teams showing average to below-average performances recently, the Guardians' best hope lies in their home-field advantage. Despite their struggles, they have an implied team total of 4.25 runs, which reflects the betting markets' view of a close contest. As the Guardians aim to turn their season around, they will need to capitalize on any opportunities against a Blue Jays team that, while solid, has shown vulnerabilities.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Alejandro Kirk has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season's 89.3-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Bo Bichette has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen has averaged 93.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball bats like Jose Ramirez are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Eric Lauer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Austin Hedges projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+11.09 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.28, Cleveland Guardians 4.53

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eric Lauer - Blue Jays
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

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