Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/25/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays are set to clash on June 25, 2024, at Fenway Park. This American League East matchup pits the 43-36 Red Sox, who are enjoying an above-average season, against the 35-43 Blue Jays, who are struggling.

The Red Sox, who won the series opener, will send Brayan Bello to the mound. Bello, a right-handed pitcher, has shown promise this season with a 7-4 record and an ERA of 4.83. Although his ERA is below average, his 3.81 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Bello’s groundball-heavy approach (55% GB rate) could neutralize the Blue Jays' weak power lineup, which ranks 26th in MLB with just 68 home runs.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with right-hander Kevin Gausman. Gausman has a 5-6 record and an ERA of 4.24, which is above average. His 3.48 xFIP also indicates some bad luck, hinting at potential improvement. However, his projection to allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.4 hits over 5.8 innings is concerning against Boston's potent offense, which ranks 5th in MLB in team batting average and 5th in stolen bases.

Offensively, Boston boasts the 5th-best lineup in MLB, highlighted by Jarren Duran's recent hot streak. Over the last week, Duran has hit .464 with a 1.214 OPS, tallying 13 hits, 6 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs in six games. In contrast, the Blue Jays' offense ranks 23rd overall and has struggled, with Spencer Horwitz being a bright spot recently, hitting .412 with a 1.389 OPS over the last week.

Both bullpens are weak, with Boston's ranked 26th and Toronto's 24th. Given the offensive disparity and Bello's groundball tendencies, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees value in betting on the Red Sox, projecting a 59% win probability compared to the market's implied 50%. Expect a high-scoring game, with the total set at 9.0 runs, but Boston's superior offense and favorable pitching matchup make them the team to back.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Kevin Gausman in the 85th percentile among all starters in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme flyball hitters like Justin Turner are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 73 games (+11.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.62 vs Boston Red Sox 5.15

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.