Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 7/31/2024

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Michael McGreevy - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On July 31, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Texas Rangers at Busch Stadium in the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Cardinals sitting at 54-52 and the Rangers at 52-55. This game offers an intriguing pitching matchup with Sonny Gray, a right-handed pitcher, set to start for St. Louis, and Andrew Heaney, a left-handed pitcher, taking the mound for Texas.

Sonny Gray, who has been a reliable arm for the Cardinals, will look to exploit a Rangers offense that ranks 18th in team batting average and 17th in home runs. Gray's ability to keep hitters off balance could be crucial against a lineup that has struggled to find consistency. On the other hand, Heaney faces a Cardinals offense that ranks 14th in team batting average but has underperformed in power metrics, sitting at 22nd in home runs.

Offensively, both teams have had their ups and downs. Paul Goldschmidt has been the standout for St. Louis over the last week, recording a .304 batting average with two home runs and a .957 OPS in his last six games. For Texas, Nate Lowe has been on a tear, hitting .348 with two home runs and a 1.152 OPS over his last seven games. These hot streaks could play pivotal roles in the outcome of this matchup.

The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggest that this game could be a toss-up, given the evenly matched records and performances. However, the Cardinals' slight edge in batting average and home-field advantage might tip the scales in their favor. With both teams looking to gain momentum, this game promises to be a closely contested battle.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has used his non-fastballs 5.4% more often this year (47.7%) than he did last season (42.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nathaniel Lowe is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Today, Nathaniel Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 43.1% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Positioned 4th-lowest in the game this year, St. Louis Cardinals bats as a unit have put up a 11.6° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable stat to evaluate power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.65 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 104 games (+11.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 29 games (+23.00 Units / 79% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.88 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.9

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